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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 7/7/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Date & Time Sunday July 7, 2019, 1:10 PM (EDT)
Location
Citi Field
Flushing, NY
The Line
New York Mets -105 / Philadelphia Phillies -115
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The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets meet in the rubber match of their three game NL East division set from Citi Field on Sunday.

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to rebound after falling just short in game two on Saturday by a final score of 6-5. Jay Bruce had a home run and two RBIs while Maikel Franco went 3 for 4 with a solo home run of his own. Rhys Hoskins had a double and an RBI while J.T. Realmuto added an RBI of his own to finish off Philadelphia’s scoring as a team in the losing effort. Cesar Hernandez went 2 for 4 while Jean Segura, Bryce Harper and starting pitcher Jake Arrieta each chipped in base hits as well in the defeat. Arrieta took the loss on the mound, falling to 8-7 on the year after allowing six runs, five earned, on 11 hits while striking out four over 4.1 innings of work. Aaron Nola will start game three and is 7-2 with a 3.89 ERA and 118 strikeouts this season. In his career, Nola is 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 76 strikeouts against the Mets.

The New York Mets will look to win the set after evening up the series at one win apiece following Saturday’s victory. Tomas Nido had a double and three RBIs while Michael Conforto added a double and an RBI and Jeff McNeil went 4 for 5 with an RBI of his own in the win. Dominic Smith added a pair of doubles while Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier and Pete Alonso each contributed base hits in the victory. Noah Syndergaard got the win to improve to 5-4 on the year after giving up four runs on seven hits over five innings of work. Edwin Diaz closed out the game for his 18th save of the season. Zack Wheeler will start game three and is 6-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 123 strikeouts this season. In his career, Wheeler is 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 80 strikeouts against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is 3-8 in their last 11 road games and 5-1 in Nola’s last 6 road starts while the over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. New York is 5-0 in Wheeler’s last 5 home starts and 3-9 in their last 12 games overall while the over is 4-1-2 in Wheeler’s last 7 starts overall. Philadelphia is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams and 6-1 in Nola’s last 7 starts against the Mets while New York is 4-1 in Wheeler’s last 5 home starts against Philadelphia.

You could honestly make a case for either side, as Nola has arguably been Philadelphia’s best pitcher while Wheeler has held the Mets in check this season, giving up just four runs in 20 innings against the Phils this season, equating to a 1.80 ERA. I’ll probably leave this one alone, but if forced to pick, I’d side with the Mets at home. Wheeler’s only dropped one decision at home this season and Nola has a road ERA just south of six this season despite a solid record. I think the Mets with the low price at near even money holds some value if you really feel the need to play this one, but there are better options on Sunday’s card.

Pick:
New York Mets -105

Chris has been a sports fan from when he was old enough to pick up a basketball and was a standout offensive lineman throughout high school and college. Chris uses that same instinct, determination and drive to analyze trends and statistics to find and produce winners on a consistent basis. Chris has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2016 and covers a wide array of sports from college and pro football, college basketball, hockey and baseball.

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