San Diego Padres at New York Mets
|Date & Time||Thursday July 25, 2019, 12:10 PM (EDT)|
Over: 7.5 (-115) / Under: 7.5 (-105)
FS-San Diego, SNY
The San Diego Padres and the New York Mets meet in the rubber match of their three game set in MLB action from Citi Field on Thursday.
The San Diego Padres will look to win the series after evening the set up at one win apiece following a 7-2 win in game two on Wednesday. Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges each went 2 for 4 with two RBIs with Hedges adding a double as well. Franmil Reyes, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eric Hosmer each had a double and an RBI to round out San Diego’s scoring as a team in the win with Tatis Jr. adding three hits while Reyes had a pair of hits. Manny Machado went 2 for 4 while Ian Kinsler and Francisco Mejia each had base hits as well to cap off San Diego’s offense as a team in the win. Dinelson Lamet allowed two runs, on earned, on four hits while striking out six, not factoring in the decision. Matt Strahm threw two perfect innings of relief with four strikeouts to improve to 4-7 on the year with the win. Eric Lauer will start game three and is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA and 79 strikeouts this season. This will be Lauer’s second career start against the Mets.
The New York Mets will look to bounce back after dropping game two on Wednesday. Michael Conforto went 2 for 4 with an RBI while Robinson Cano added an RBI of his own to round out the Mets’ scoring as a team in the loss. Jeff McNeil and Amed Rosario each had a double while Dominic Smith added a base hit as well as the Mets cranked out just five hits as a team in the losing effort. Noah Syndergaard took the loss, falling to 7-5 on the year after allowing four runs, three earned, on eight hits while walking five and striking out eight over seven innings of work. Jacob DeGrom will start game three and is 5-7 with a 3.02 ERA and 154 strikeouts this season. In his career, DeGrom is 3-3 with a 1.79 ERA and 52 strikeouts against San Diego.
San Diego is 3-8 in their last 11 games overall and 6-16 in their last 22 games against a team with a losing record while the under is 4-0 in Lauer’s last 4 starts overall. New York is 4-14 in DeGrom’s last 18 starts and 8-22 in DeGrom’s last 30 home starts while the under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games against the NL West.
I’d like to give the plus money a look with San Diego after Wednesday’s win, but the problem is that Lauer has an ERA well over six on the road this season and is coming off of a start in which he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings of work. On the other hand, while DeGrom should be the favorite here, I’m not trying to lay this kind of juice with a Mets team that’s lost 14 of their staff ace’s last 18 starts. DeGrom has allowed three runs or less in his last 11 starts and the Mets have won just three of those games because DeGrom gets no run support for whatever reason. Despite that trend, I’m going to side with the over. I expect that Mets to get some runs off of Lauer whose lone start against the Mets saw him give up six runs in four innings while the Padres have enough pop in their bats to get a couple of runs off of DeGrom and maybe some extra if they get to New York’s bullpen.