Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - 6/12/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 6:05 PM (Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies -140 / Arizona Diamondbacks +120
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies meet in the rubber match of their three game set in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to rebound and take the set after dropping game two on Tuesday by a final score of 7-4. Carson Kelly went 2 for 3 with a double and two RBIs while Ketel Marte went 3 for 5 with a solo home run and Eduardo Escobar added an RBI of his own to cap off Arizona’s scoring as a team in the loss. David Peralta had a double while Kevin Cron and Nick Ahmed each contributed a base hit as well in the defeat. Jon Duplantier took the loss, falling to 1-1 on the year after allowing four runs on seven hits over just three innings of work. Merrill Kelly will start game three and is 6-6 with a 4.12 ERA and 58 strikeouts this season. This will be Kelly’s first career start against Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to build some steam after evening the set up at one win apiece following their victory on Tuesday. Scott Kingery had a home run and three RBIs while Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and Jay Bruce each had an RBI with Harper doubling while Hoskins and Bruce each went 2 for 3. Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto each had a double with Realmuto going 2 for 4 while Cesar Hernandez, Sean Rodriguez and Phil Gosselin each had base knocks as well in the victory. Jake Arrieta got the win to improve to 6-5 on the year after allowing three runs on six hits while walking four and whiffing five over six innings of work. Hector Neris threw a perfect 9th for his 14th save of the year. Zach Eflin will start the finale and is 6-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 57 strikeouts this season. In his career, Eflin is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 6 strikeouts against Arizona.
Arizona is 6-2 in their last 8 Wednesday games and 3-9 in their last 12 games following a loss while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Eflin’s last 7 home starts and 8-3 in their last 11 home games while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 games against the NL West. Arizona is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia.
Kelly has been solid for the D-Backs over his last couple of starts, giving up just one run in each of his last pair of starts, for a total of two runs in 14.2 innings of work. However, Kelly’s ERA balloons on the road to 6.00 compared to 2.35 at home, and his ERA against teams with winning records is 5.73 with a 2-6 record compared to 4-0 with a 1.33 ERA against teams with sub-.500 records. Eflin has a tendency to keep runs off of the board and with the way the Phillies’ offense is capable of producing, I think the Phils get to Kelly here, so I’ll lay the juice with Philadelphia at home in this spot.