Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - 4/25/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 6:05 PM (Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+113) / Miami Marlins: 1.5 (-125)
The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet in game one of a four game NL East division set from Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night.
The Miami Marlins will look to rebound after settling for a series split with the Cleveland Indians, dropping the finale of their two game set by a final score of 6-2 on Wednesday. Martin Prado had a solo home run and Jon Berti added an RBI of his own to round out Miami’s scoring in the loss. Curtis Granderson had a double while Brian Anderson, Neil Walker and Miguel Rojas each had a base hit as well in the losing effort as Miami had just five hits as a team in the defeat. Sandy Alcantara gave up two runs, one earned, on four hits while walking four over five innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Adam Conley took the loss, falling to 0-3 in relief. Caleb Smith will start game one and is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. In his career, Smith is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts against Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to build some steam after picking up a 6-0 win over the Mets in their series finale on Wednesday, avoiding the sweep in the process. Rhys Hoskins went 2 for 4 with a home run, a triple and two RBIs while Bryce Harper, Maikel Franco, Phil Gosselin and Roman Quinn each had RBIs with Harper adding a double. J.T. Realmuto and Sean Rodriguez each had a double while Cesar Hernandez and Andrew McCutchen each had base hits as well in the victory. Vince Velasquez got the win to improve to 1-0 after throwing five shutout innings, giving up just three hits while walking three and striking out six over five innings of work. Aaron Nola will start game one and is 2-0 with a 6.84 ERA and 28 strikeouts this season. In his career, Nola is 3-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 59 strikeouts against Miami.
Miami is 6-2 in Smith’s last 8 starts and 24-53 in their last 77 games overall while the under is 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Philadelphia is 21-7 in Nola’s last 28 home starts and 2-5 in their last 7 games overall while the over is 5-0 in Nola’s last 5 starts overall. Miami is 4-9 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams and 25-54 in the last 79 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia.
The plus money with Miami could be worth a look considering that Smith has arguably been Miami’s best pitcher so far this season. However, even winning games here and there, the Marlins are still one of the worst teams in the league offensively, and while Nola hasn’t been the definition of a staff ace, giving up 19 runs, 18 earned, in his last four starts spanning 19 innings, Nola still posted a 1.86 ERA against Miami last season. I think when you combine Nola’s stuff with a Miami team that has trouble scoring, this could be a game that Nola uses to break out of his funk and given that the line is steep, I’ll side with the Phillies on the RL as the Phils are simply the better offensive team as well.