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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - 6/21/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Date & Time Friday June 21, 2019, 7:05 PM (EDT)
Citizens Bank Park
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The Line
Philadelphia Phillies -203 / Miami Marlins +187 O/U: 8.5
TV Channel
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The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies will meet up on the MLB diamond Friday to kick off their series.

Miami is coming off a set against the Cardinals. the Marlins won Tuesday but dropped Monday’s and Wednesday’s games. In the Thursday finale, Miami eked out a 7-6 win in 11 innings.

For the Friday matchup, Miami will be sending out Sandy Alcantara in the start. Over his 82.0 innings and 3-6 record this year, Alcantara has a 3.73 ERA with 58 Ks and 38 BBs.

Over on the Phillies’ side, they just finished up against the Nationals. Philly fell 6-2 and 2-0 in the Wednesday doubleheader, then Thursday the Phillies fell 7-4.

In Friday’s game, the Phillies’ starter will be Aaron Nola. Across 81.0 innings and a 6-1 record this year, Nola has a 4.89 ERA with 90 Ks and 36 BBs.

The Marlins are 0-4 in their last four in game one of a series and 1-4 in Alcantara’s last five starts. Miami is 1-4 in Alcantara’s last five starts in game one of a series and 0-5 in his last five with four days’ rest.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six in game one of a series and 4-0 in Nola’s last four starts. Philly is 25-9 in Nola’s last 34 home starts and 1-4 in his last five versus the NL East.

Alcantara has been solid as of late, with three quality starts in his last four tries. In those four games, Alcantara has five earned over 24.0 total innings.

As for Nola, he’s given up 14 total earned over his last three starts, though the two bad ones in that trio were on the road.

Still, Alcantara has enough momentum right now for me to take Miami on a value play, despite the icy cold trends.

Miami Marlins +187

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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