Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - 5/16/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, May 16, 2019 at 12:05 PM (Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies -118 / Milwaukee Brewers +109 -- O/U: 9
The Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies meet in the finale of their four game set in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park on Thursday.
The Milwaukee Brewers will look to win the series after taking game three on Wednesday by a final score of 5-2. Jesus Aguilar had two RBIs while Ryan Braun and Mike Moustakas each had an RBI with Braun going 2 for 4 at the dish. Christian Yelich went 2 for 4 at the dish while Lorenzo Cain had a base hit as well in the victory. Gio Gonzalez got the win to improve to 2-0 on the year after allowing one run on seven hits over 5.1 innings of work. Josh Hader closed out the 9th for his 11th save of the season. Zach Davies will start game four and is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. In his career, Davies is 1-1 with a 7.15 ERA and 11 strikeouts against Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Phillies will look to salvage a series split after dropping game three on Wednesday. Jean Segura had a solo home run while Andrew McCutchen accounted for the only other Phillies’ RBI in the losing effort. J.T. Realmuto went 2 for 4 while Bryce Harper had a double and Rhys Hoskins, Jake Arrieta and Nick Williams each had a base hit as well in the defeat. Jake Arrieta took the loss, falling to 4-4 on the year after allowing five runs, four earned, on five hits while walking four and striking out five over six innings of work. Zach Eflin will start game four and is 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season. In his career, Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 15 strikeouts against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is 2-9 in Davies’ last 11 starts against a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 games overall while the under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games. Philadelphia is 5-0 in Eflin’s last 5 home starts and 1-4 in their last 5 game four matchups while the under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games overall. Milwaukee is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia.
I think you could honestly make a case for either side and no one would blame you, as the Brewers are red hot and Davies has the lowest ERA in the majors right now. However, Davies has had a rough go at it in his time against Philadelphia, while Eflin has won his last three starts, allowed one run or less in each of those starts and has a pair of complete games in that span. The plus money is tempting, but I think Eflin outduels Davies here to help Philadelphia earn the series split here.