Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets - 6/24/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Monday, June 24, 2019 at 6:05 PM (Citizens Bank Park)
Philadelphia Phillies -120 / New York Mets +100
The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet in game one of a four game NL East division set in MLB action from Citizens’ Bank Park on Monday night.
The New York Mets will look to rebound after having to settle for a series split with the Chicago Cubs following a 5-3 loss in the series finale on Sunday. Pete Alonso and Tomas Nido each had a solo home run while Jacob DeGrom added an RBI to help his own cause, rounding out the scoring for the Mets in the losing effort. Todd Frazier went 2 for 4 with a double and Juan Lagares added a two-bagger of his own while Amed Rosario chipped in a base knock as the Mets had just seven hits as a team in the losing effort. DeGrom gave up two runs on eight hits while striking out nine over six innings of work, not factoring in the decision. Seth Lugo took the loss, falling to 3-1 on the year in relief. Steven Matz will start game one and is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. In his career, Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 24 strikeouts against Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia Phillies are in series need of a win after losing seven straight and 11 of their last 13 games, being swept for the second straight series, this time by the Marlins following a 6-4 loss in the series finale on Sunday. Jean Segura had two RBIs while Jay Bruce and Sean Rodriguez each had RBIs as well in the loss. Cesar Hernandez went 2 for 4 with a double while Bryce Harper added a base hit as well as the losing effort as Philly cranked out just four hits as a team in defeat. Enyel De Los Santos took the loss, falling to 0-1 on the year after allowing four runs on seven hits while walking three over four innings of work. Zach Eflin will start the opener and is 6-7 with a 2.83 ERA and 73 strikeouts this season. In his career, Eflin is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 37 strikeouts against the Mets.
New York is 1-5 in Matz’s last 6 road starts and 8-21 in their last 29 road games while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 division games. Philadelphia is 1-6 in their last 7 home games and 0-7 in their last 7 games overall while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. New York is 1-4 in Matz’s last 5 starts against Philadelphia and 1-4 in Matz’s last 5 road starts against the Phillies.
I’m not sure how good I feel about a team being favored that’s lost seven in a row the way that the Phillies have. However, Eflin has been a better pitcher for the most part than his numbers would indicate, giving up three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and pitching to a 2.13 ERA at home this season. Eflin has just been a victim of a lack of run support in my opinion, and getting runs here shouldn’t be that much of an issue against Matz, who has allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts, for a total of 17 runs, 15 earned across his last 23 innings of work. Matz also has an ERA over six on the road this season, so while this may be a better game to just watch than try to pick, I’d lay the juice with the overdue Phillies to get a W in the opener.