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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds - 4/4/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Date & Time Thursday April 4, 2019, 7:05 PM (EDT)
Location
PNC Park
Pittsburgh, PA
The Line
Pittsburgh Pirates -120 / Cincinnati Reds +100
TV Channel
FS-Ohio
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David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet in game one of a four game NL Central division set in MLB action from PNC Park on Thursday night.

The Cincinnati Reds will look to rebound after being swept by Milwaukee, losing their third straight one run game, including a 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Brewers on Wednesday. Matt Kemp, Eugenio Suarez and Curt Casali each had a single as none of Cincinnati’s three base hits went for extra bases in the losing effort. Luis Castillo was a hard luck loser in the defeat, falling to 0-1 after allowing just one run on one hit while walking four and striking out nine over seven innings of work. Tyler Mahle will start game one and was 7-9 with a 4.98 ERA and 110 strikeouts last season. In his career, Mahle is 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA and 13 strikeouts against Pittsburgh.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to rebound after being swept by St. Louis, losing a pair of one run games in the two game set after a 5-4 loss in 10 innings on Wednesday. Jung Ho Kang belted a solo home run for the Pirates while JB Shuck, Erik Gonzalez and Adam Frazier each had an RBI. Frazier went 3 for 5 at the dish with a pair of doubles while Gonzalez had a triple. Melky Cabrera had a double while Francisco Cervelli had a base hit of his own as well in the losing effort. Jameson Taillon gave up one run on three hits while striking out five over seven innings of work. Nick Burdi took the loss, falling to 0-1 on the year. Jordan Lyles will start game one and was 3-4 with a 4.11 ERA and 84 strikeouts between the Brewers and Padres last season. In his career, Lyles is 4-1 with a 4.53 ERA and 35 strikeouts against Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is 0-5 in Mahle’s last 5 starts and 8-25 in their last 33 road games while the under is 21-6-1 in their last 28 games overall. Pittsburgh is 9-4 in their last 13 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400 while the under is 31-15-1 in their last 47 games overall. Cincinnati is 2-9 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams, 1-6 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh and 0-4 in Mahle’s last 4 starts against the Pirates.

Cincinnati hung in tough against Pittsburgh, so the plus money could be worth a look here if the Reds catch a break in game one. However, Mahle has had no luck against Pittsburgh in his career, and the Reds have struggled with Mahle on the bump against Pittsburgh as a team as well. Lyles hasn’t been a rock solid pitcher by any means, but he’s had success in his career against the Reds and you’d have to imagine that the Pirates would be more likely to get a win at home here. The price isn’t too bad with the Pirates either, so I’ll lay the juice with Pittsburgh in this spot.

Pick:
Pittsburgh Pirates -120

Chris has been a sports fan from when he was old enough to pick up a basketball and was a standout offensive lineman throughout high school and college. Chris uses that same instinct, determination and drive to analyze trends and statistics to find and produce winners on a consistent basis. Chris has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2016 and covers a wide array of sports from college and pro football, college basketball, hockey and baseball.

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