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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 7/21/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Date & Time Sunday July 21, 2019, 1:35 PM (EDT)
PNC Park
Pittsburgh, PA
The Line
Philadelphia Phillies / Pittsburgh Pirates -- O/U:
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The Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet in the rubber match of their three game set in MLB action from PNC Park in MLB action on Sunday.

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to rebound and win the set after dropping game two on Saturday by a final score of 5-1. Adam Haseley had the Phillies’ lone RBI while Jean Segura went 2 for 3 and Cesar Hernandez added a base hit of his own as the Phillies had just three hits as a team in the loss. The rest of the Phillies went 0 for 23 with 11 strikeouts in the defeat. Zach Eflin took the loss, falling to 7-10 on the year after allowing three runs on five hits while striking out three over four innings of work. Drew Smyly will start game three and is 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season. This will be Smyly’s second career start against Pittsburgh.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to win the series after evening the set up at one win apiece following Saturday’s victory. Starling Marte went 3 for 5 with a pair of doubles and an RBI while Bryan Reynolds, Josh Bell and Colin Moran each had an RBI as well in the win with Moran adding a double of his own. Corey Dickerson went 2 for 4 with a pair of doubles and Joe Musgrove added a two-bagger of his own as well while Adam Frazier, Elias Diaz and Kevin Newman each had base hits as well in the victory. Musgrove got the win to improve to 7-8 on the year after allowing one run on two hits while striking out eight over six innings of work. Dario Agrazal will start game three and is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 7 strikeouts this season. This will be Agrazal’s first career start against Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is 5-11 in their last 16 game three matchups and 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss while the under is 6-0 in their last 6 games against the NL Central. Pittsburgh is 10-3 in their last 13 home games and 5-12 in their last 17 games against a left-handed starter while the over is 45-22-3 in their last 70 games overall.

The Phillies are probably the better team here, but I can’t get behind Philly with Smyly pitching. Smyly hasn’t pitched in over a month, and when he was pitching for the Rangers, he allowed five or more runs in four of his last five appearances, failing to go more than five innings in any of those appearances. Agrazal has had limited action, but he’s given up two runs or less in all four of his starts to start his young career and what’s more impressive is that a lot of that came on the road as this is only the rookie’s second home start. I just think the Pirates have a pitching advantage here that’s hard to ignore, so I’ll side with the Pirates for a series victory here.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Chris has been a sports fan from when he was old enough to pick up a basketball and was a standout offensive lineman throughout high school and college. Chris uses that same instinct, determination and drive to analyze trends and statistics to find and produce winners on a consistent basis. Chris has been writing for Sports Chat Place since 2016 and covers a wide array of sports from college and pro football, college basketball, hockey and baseball.

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