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Robinson Cano & Edwin Diaz Trade: Handicapping New York Mets World Series Odds

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz were traded from the Seattle Mariners to the New York Mets in a blockbuster MLB trade that will send Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak and a package of prospects to the west coast. While many will lose their mind over the long-term outlook of this deal and that horrible, horrible, horrible Cano contract, all I’m concerned about is what the Mets look like for the upcoming year and if I can make money on them in a possible future bet. 

At +3300 odds, (Bovada) I’m interested in the Mets as a long shot World Series wager. Let it be clear that I usually only bet bigger odds when it comes to future bets, as I want the return to be worth it when my money is tied up for several months. Making 30 times my money gets me out of bed. It also provides me hedging room later in the season. Say if the Mets make the playoffs and I don’t like the matchup, I can bet against my original bet to guarantee profit.

Even before this trade the Mets should have been a playoff contender. It all comes down to a pitching staff of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler staying healthy. If those four guys can give the Mets 200-plus innings each, this team will be much improved.

As for the trade itself, Cano gives the Mets the big bat in the middle of the lineup they lacked last season. While the Mets ranked near the bottom in every major offensive category, youngsters such as Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo all flashed serious potential and combined for 388 hits and 54 homers. The problem was the rest of the lineup that couldn’t pick up the slack.

Cano may be 36 years old and coming off a PED suspension, but he’s never hit less than .271 in a season and has struck out 100 or more times just twice in his career. Even last year in limited and inconsistent playing time, Cano hit .303/.374/.471 in 80 games, which was worth 3.2 WAR. From 2016-17, Cano averaged 180 hits, 31 homers, 100 RBI and batted .289. There’s enough here to suggest that Cano is still a difference maker and can help out a struggling Mets offense right away. Let’s also not forget that Yoenis Cespedes should return around the second half of the season, giving the Mets two big bats and guys who can clean things up with one swing.

Diaz and his resume speaks for itself, as he has 109 saves in three years with a career 2.64 ERA and a WHIP of 1.02, while averaging 14.18 strikeouts per nine innings. Diaz is averaging four blown saves a year, and the Mariners won 42 of the last 44 games in which he’s pitched. Arguably the best closer in the game, it’s fair to say the Mets bullpen is improved with the addition of Diaz. 

This trade certainly doesn’t put the Mets in the same conversation as the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs, but it does improve their lineup and bullpen, while making them a contender for one of the two wild card spots. The Mets lineup has underrated potential and the starting rotation is still one of the better ones when everybody is healthy. This move also convinces me that the Mets won’t be trading one of their ace pitchers as previous rumors indicated. It would be a weird message to make this move and then trade key pieces to take a step back. 

The Mets will be interesting in 2019. Interesting enough for a World Series future bet at +3300 odds.

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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