San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves - 7/12/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
Friday, July 12, 2019 at 9:10 PM (Petco Park)
San Diego Padres +100 / Atlanta Braves -120
TV: FS-San Diego, FS-South
The Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres meet in game one of a three game set in MLB action from Petco Park on Friday night.
The Atlanta Braves will look to start the second half the same way that they finished the first, finishing with a 4-3 win over Miami to push the Braves’ division leading record to 54-37 heading into the all-star break. Josh Donaldson went 2 for 4 with a home run, a double and two RBIs while Nick Markakis went 3 for 4 with an RBI and Freddie Freeman added an RBI of his own to round out Atlanta’s scoring as a team in the winning effort. Ozzie Albies went 2 for 3 while Ronald Acuna Jr. added a base hit of his own to cap off the Braves’ offense as a team in the victory. Dallas Keuchel got the win on the mound to improve to 2-2 on the year after giving up two runs on five hits while striking out four over 7.1 innings of work. Luke Jackson closed out the 9th for his 14th save of the campaign. Keuchel will get the nod in this one as well and is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 12 strikeouts this season. In his career, Keuchel is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 7 strikeouts against San Diego.
The San Diego Padres will look to make some noise in the second half of the season, finishing the first half where they started back at .500 at 45-45, finishing with a three game winning streak and winning their series against the Dodgers in the process with a 5-3 win in the series finale. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 2 for 4 with a pair of home runs and four RBIs while Manuel Margot went 2 for 4 with a solo home run to round out San Diego’s scoring as a team in the win. Hunter Renfroe went 2 for 4 while Austin Hedges added a double and Franmil Reyes contributed a base hit of his own in the victory. Joey Lucchesi got the win to improve to 7-4 on the year after allowing three runs on six hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings of work. Kirby Yates closed out the 9th for his whopping 30th save of the season already. Dinelson Lamet will start game one and is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 7 strikeouts this season. This will be Lamet’s second career start against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 18-8 in their last 26 road games and 36-17 in their last 53 games overall while the under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 series opening matchups. San Diego is 0-8 in Lamet’s last 8 starts and 0-4 in their last 4 home games while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. Atlanta is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings between these two teams and 7-20 in the last 27 meetings between these two teams in San Diego.
Lamet has shown flashes of solid stuff in the past, including seven shutout innings in his lone career start against Atlanta. The Padres are also a streaky team so they could be a sneaky play here given the hot streak they found to finish the first half of the season. However, it’s hard for me to get behind Lamet with just one start under his belt and going against one of the hotter teams in the majors like Atlanta is no easy task, especially when Keuchel is starting to find his footing for his new team. I just think that even on the road, this is too good of a price to pass on for Atlanta given how the Braves have played in the first half, so I’ll lay the juice with the Braves in this spot.