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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 5/6/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
Date & Time Monday May 6, 2019, 8:05 PM (EDT)
Busch Stadium
St. Louis, Missouri
The Line
St. Louis Cardinals -130 / Philadelphia Phillies +120 O/U: 8.5
TV Channel
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The Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals will match up on the MLB circuit Monday to kick off their series.

The Phillies are fresh off a weekend series against the Nationals. Philadelphia split the first two games of that set, then on Sunday the Phillies scored five runs in the sixth inning on the way to a 7-1 win.

For the Monday game, the Phillies will be sending out Vince Velasquez in the start. Over his 26.1 innings and 1-1 mark this year, Velasquez has a 2.73 ERA with 29 Ks and 10 BBs.

Over on the Cardinals’ side, they’re coming off a series versus the Cubs. St. Louis dropped Friday’s game 4-0 and Saturday’s game 6-5, then on Sunday the Cardinals fell again 13-5.

For the Monday start, St. Louis will be going with Miles Mikolas. In his 40.0 innings and 3-2 record so far, Mikolas has a 4.72 ERA with 23 Ks and nine walks.

The Phillies are 1-5 in their last six in game one of a series and 1-4 in Velasquez’s last five Monday starts. Philadelphia is 1-7 in Velasquez’s last eight starts in game one of a series and 3-11 in his last 14 road starts.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five Monday games and 20-6 in Mikolas’ last 26 starts. St. Louis is 9-2 in Mikolas’ last 11 home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts with four days’ rest.

For the most part this season, Mikolas has been pretty solid but not especially overpowering. Over his last three starts however, Mikolas has put up two quality outings with three combined earned runs over 14.0 innings in those games.

Velasquez has started off the season pretty well, though his K/BB ratio isn’t great so far. In any case, I think there’s enough here to take the Phillies to eke one out on a value pick, but since the Cardinals play well behind Mikolas and the Phillies don’t necessarily return the favor to Velasquez, I have to go St. Louis in this one despite coming off the sweep.

St. Louis Cardinals -130

Andrew has been with Sports Chat Place since 2012, contributing to football, baseball and basketball across the fantasy, college and professional ranks. His goal is to break down the complicated trends and numbers into a language that's accessible even if you're not a seasoned sports bettor, providing comprehensive insight that can apply to just about everyone. Follow Andrew on Twitter for links to his latest Sports Chat Place picks. 

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