Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox - 7/4/19 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Thursday, July 4, 2019 at 6:07 PM (Rogers Centre)
Toronto Blue Jays +105 / Boston Red Sox -125
TV: RSN, NESN
The Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays meet in the rubber match of their three game AL East division set in MLB action from Rogers Centre on Thursday.
The Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back and win the set after dropping game two on Wednesday by a final score of 6-3. Rafael Devers had two RBis while Christian Vazquez had a solo home run to round out Boston’s scoring as a team in the loss. Michael Chavis had a pair of doubles and Mookie Betts added a two-bagger of his own while J.D. Martinez and Brock Holt each contributed a base knock to finish off Boston’s offense as a team in the loss. Chris Sale took the loss, falling to 3-8 on the year after allowing five runs on nine hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings of work. Rick Porcello will start game three and is 5-7 with a 5.07 ERA and 76 strikeouts this season. In his career, Porcello is 10-12 with a 5.47 ERA and 115 strikeouts against Toronto.
The Toronto Blue Jays will look to win the series after evening the set up at one win apiece following their victory on Wednesday. Danny Jansen and Brandon Drury each had a home run and two RBIs while Drury going 3 for 4 with a double as well. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. added a solo home run while Freddy Galvis went 3 for 3 with a double and an RBI to round out Toronto’s scoring as a team in the win. Rowdy Tellez went 2 for 3 with a double while Justin Smoak added a base hit of his own to finish off Toronto’s offense in the win. Jacob Waguespack picked up the win to improve to 1-0 while Ken Giles closed out the 9th for his 13th save of the season. Marcus Stroman will start game three and is 5-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season. In his career, Stroman is 6-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 68 strikeouts against Boston.
Boston is 10-2 in their last 12 road games and 70-32 in their last 102 road games against a right-handed starter while the over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 Thursday games. Toronto is 19-40 in their last 59 games overall and 4-15 in their last 19 games following a win while the over is 7-3 in their last 10 division games. Boston is 36-17 in the last 53 meetings between these two teams and 21-7 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams in Toronto.
Toronto in an underdog role at home is tempting considering that Stroman has been one of the team’s better pitchers and that Porcello has allowed 11 runs in his last 6.1 innings of work and at least four runs in five of his last seven starts. However, as many problems as Porcello has had, the fact is that the Red Sox are still the easier team to trust day-to-day and even with Stroman pitching well, he doesn’t tend to get much run support behind him. All things considered, this is a pretty good price for the Red Sox, so I’ll side with Boston for the series victory on Thursday.