Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm - 7/6/19 UFC 239 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Amanda Nunes vs. Holly Holm
Saturday, July 6, 2019 at 12:24 PM (T-Mobile Arena)
The Line: Nunes -326 / Holm +284 -- Over/Under:
Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm fight Saturday during UFC 239 at the T-Mobile Arena.
Amanda Nunes enters this fight with a 17-4 record and has won 71 percent of her fights by knockout. Nunes has won her last eight fights and is coming off a December win over Cris Cyborg. Nunes is averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Nunes is averaging 1.84 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Nunes is fresh off winning the UFC Women's Featherweight Championship to go with her bantamweight title and is the first woman in UFC history to champ two divisions. Nunes went toe-to-toe with a dangerous and powerful striker in Cyborg and was the fist to finish her by knockout, easily one of the more impressive performances of last year. Nunes has put herself in the conversation as the best pound for pound on the women’s side, as she’s an accurate striker who cuts off the octagon and can land bombs. Nunes is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is effective when she looks for takedowns. Nunes has produced finishes in six of her last eight fights and five of those wins have come in the first round. This will be Nunes’ fifth career fight in Nevada.
Holly Holm enters this fight with a 12-4 record and has won 67 percent of her fights by knockout. Holm has split her last eight fights and is coming off a June (2018) win over Megan Anderson. Holm is averaging 2.82 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Holm is averaging 0.56 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 32 percent. Holm gets a decision victory a little over a year ago and will have her fifth title shot in her last eight fights. Holm is 1-3 in fights with a belt on the line and hasn’t won back-to-back fights overall since 2015. Overall, Holm is 2-4 since shocking the world with the upset over Ronda Rousey. At 37 years old there’s going to be no surprises with Holm, as she comes from a boxing and kickboxing background, and she does her best when fighting from a distance where she can let her legs go and keep her opponent at bay. Holm will press forward at times and does a wonderful job of landing combinations. She also has good footwork, is an effective counterpuncher and works well behind her jab. This will be Holm’s third career fight in Nevada.
Holm has the striking to win this fight, but there’s a ceiling on her ability and I think the results since beating Rousey have shown that. She’s got a strong chin, is willing to trade if that’s what it takes and always has the potential to land one head kick that completely change the fight. The problem is Nunes is the better pure striker with more pop in her hands and can cut the octagon off, where she can unload like she did to Cyborg. Nunes’ pressure is going to give Holm problems in this bout. Nunes would also have a serious advantage on the canvas with her background in BJJ and could finish this fight rather quickly if she gets it to the ground. Nunes is going to win this fight, but there’s less juice in predicting this thing won’t go the distance. Nunes has only seen three decisions in her career and has really picked up the aggressiveness during this winning streak. This bet also protects you from a Holm head kick that could knock the lights out.
This fight won’t go the distance.