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Beneil Dariush vs. Drew Dober - 3/9/19 UFC on ESPN+ 4 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Beneil Dariush vs. Drew Dober
Date & Time Saturday March 9, 2019, 8:30 PM (EST)
Location
Intrust Bank Arena
Wichita, Kansas
The Line
The Line: Dariush -186 / Dober +169 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN+
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Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Beneil Dariush and Drew Dober fight Saturday during UFC on ESPN+ 4 at the Intrust Bank Arena.

Beneil Dariush enters this fight with a 15-4-1 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by submission. Dariush has split his last six fights and is coming off a November win over Thiago Moises. Dariush is averaging 3.92 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Dariush is averaging 1.47 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 30 percent. Dariush is coming off a dominating unanimous decision victory in which he landed 226 strikes and produced eight takedowns. Dariush now has shot at back-to-back victories for the first time since 2016. Dariush is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he’s an all-round fighter who is effective standing up, in the clinch and on the ground. Dariush uses his legs very well and enjoys working the body where he lands 25 percent of his total strikes. Dariush has a solid takedown defense and is a well conditioned fighter who has won all six of his career decisions. The concern is Dariush has shown a questionable chin and three of his four losses have ended in knockout. This will be Dariush’s first career fight in Kansas.

Drew Dober enters this fight with a 20-8 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by knockout. Dober has won five of his last six fights and is coming off an August win over Jon Tuck. Dober is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Dober is averaging 1.07 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 17 percent. Dober has won each of his last three fights since that submission loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier in UFC 206 and can win four straight fights under the UFC banner for the first time in his career. Dober is a southpaw who has a deep background in Muay Thai and wrestling since an early age, so he’s highly effective in the clinch and is prepared for a lengthy, drawn out fight that tests both fighters conditioning. Ten of Dober’s last 12 victories have ended in either a decision or a submission. However, Dober has shown, mainly in his fight against Josh Burkman, that he has knockout potential in his fists, so his standup cannot be overlooked at all. This will be Dober’s second career fight in Kansas.

Dober is enjoying his best stretch in the UFC and is worth a look at the plus money given this stretch he’s on currently. However, Dariush is simply the more skilled fighter who also has a size advantage at 5’10” with a with a 72-inch reach and a 40.5-inch leg reach. Dariush is the more accurate striker with a solid takedown defense and should be able to pile up the leg kicks and the points assuming this fight goes the distance.

Cool fight with a lot of kicks and clinching involved, but Dariush has the edge given his size and striking accuracy.

Pick:
Beneil Dariush -186

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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