Michael Chiesa vs. Carlos Condit
|Date & Time||Saturday December 29, 2018, 10:30 PM (EST)|
The Line: Carlos Condit +169 / Michael Chiesa -186 -- Over/Under:
Carlos Condit and Michael Chiesa fight Saturday during UFC 232 at the T-Mobile Arena.
Carlos Condit enters this fight with a 30-12 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Condit has lost each of his last four fights and is coming off an April loss to Alex Oliveira. Condit is averaging 3.74 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Condit is averaging 0.63 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Condit is pretty much in must-win territory, as he’s lost seven of his last nine fights and hasn’t won since his 2015 bout against Thiago Alves. Condit hasn’t been competitive in any of his last three fights and has been finished in three of his last five losses. When in good form, Condit is one of the better finishers in the sport, as only two of his 30 wins have come by decision and he has true one punch knockout power thanks to his boxing background. Condit also has a kickboxing background, is really athletic and has the stamina to still be effective in the later rounds despite losing each of his last four decisions. It’s tough to give up on an explosive fighter such as Condit, but he’s not getting any younger at 34 years old and at some point he has to flip the switch. This will be Condit’s ninth career fight in Las Vegas.
Michael Chiesa enters this fight with a 14-4 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by submission. Chiesa has split his last six fights and is coming off a July loss to Anthony Pettis. Chiesa is averaging 2.17 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Chiesa is averaging 2.87 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Chiesa is riding a two-fight losing streak and has been forced to tap in both of those fights, so he’s now been finished in all four of his losses, three times via submission. That can’t be good for Chiesa, who has a reputation of being a good scrambler and having a quality ground game. Still, each of Chiesa’s last four fights have ended by submission for better or worse, and he should continue to be aggressive with those takedowns, as he does his best work on the canvas. Chiesa has never won a fight by knockout and isn’t much of an aggressive striker overall. Chiesa has to live and die on the ground, which is a gift and curse, as we’ve seen as of late. This will be Chiesa’s fifth career fight in Las Vegas.
Chiesa should be the favorite here based on the overall form of both fighters and the fact he’s the much more balanced fighter of the two. Condit has shown very little in his last few fights and has a questionable takedown defense, which should make life easy for Chiesa. With that said, I’m still backing Condit and the plus money. Despite everything wrong with Condit, he’s still a powerful striker who just needs to land once. While Chiesa usually gets the fight where he wants it and allows the chips to fall where they may, he better be careful rushing in with this opponent. Condit has a clear edge standing up and that’s enough for me to take a chance with the value of the plus money.
I’ll take a shot with The Natural Born Killer ending the drought.