Colby Covington vs. Robbie Lawler - 8/3/19 UFC on ESPN 5 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Colby Covington vs. Robbie Lawler
Saturday, August 3, 2019 at 10:45 PM (Prudential Center)
The Line: Lawler +206 / Covington -234 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
Colby Covington and Robbie Lawler fight Saturday during UFC on ESPN 5 at the Prudential Center.
Colby Covington enters this fight with a 14-1 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Covington has won each of his last six fights and is coming off a June (2018) win over Rafael dos Anjos. Covington is averaging 3.26 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Covington is averaging 5.63 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. For the first time since turning pro in 2012, Covington will fight with over a year of not being in the octagon, as his last September bout with Tyron Woodley was cancelled due to nasal surgery. It’s going to be interesting to see if a 14-month layoff has any impact on the 31-year-old. Covington is most known for his wrestling and cardio, as he has a big gas tank, is highly effective with his takedowns and never stops being aggressive, which is why he’s won all seven of his career decisions. And while it’s his ground game that gets all of the attention, Covington can hold his own with his standup striking, as his crazy arm angles can be tough to read and it often leads to him following in with a takedown attempt. This will be Covington’s first career fight in New Jersey.
Robbie Lawler enters this fight with a 28-13 record and has won 71 percent of his fights by knockout. Lawler has lost three of his last four fights and is coming off a March loss to Ben Askren. Lawler is averaging 3.93 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Lawler is averaging 0.99 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 77 percent. Lawler looked sharp in his first fight since an ACL injury, as he dropped Askren on his head early and it looked like he was going to get a knockout victory. Lawler was then submitted in controversial fashion when it looked like his arm went limp but he was completely conscious once the fight was called. Either way, Lawler proved he can still compete despite being 37 years old and fresh off a serious knee injury. Lawler is an aggressive striker with legit knockout potential and is just as effective in the clinch as he is standing up. Five of Lawler’s last seven wins have come by decision, but he has a brawler feel to him and he showed that again during UFC 235. Lawler is also quite the takedown artist when he looks to take the fight to the canvas, but he’s been submitted six times, so the ground game can be a slippery slope. This will be Lawler’s third career fight in New Jersey.
This line is very interesting to say the least, as I guess you can say Covington should be favored because he’s the longer fighter and would have an advantage on the ground with his deep wrestling background. Covington’s cardio also plays a roll, as he’s going up against an aging Lawler who has been out of action for much of the last two years. With that said, Lawler has a considerable edge on the feet and will have many chances to end this thing as long as he keeps it there. Lawler has also faced quality wrestlers in the past such as Jake Ellenberger, Josh Koscheck and Rory MacDonald, so this is nothing new for him.
I just don’t understand why Covington is this big of a favorite. I’ll gladly take Lawler at his price.