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Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos - 5/4/19 UFC Fight Night 151 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos
Date & Time Saturday May 4, 2019, 9:30 PM (EDT)
Location
Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa, Ontario
The Line
The Line: Burgos -172 / Swanson +158 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN+
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Cub Swanson and Shane Burgos fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 151 at the Canadian Tire Centre.

Cub Swanson enters this fight with a 25-10 record and has won 44 percent of his fights by knockout. Swanson has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a August loss to Renato Moicano. Swanson is averaging 4.16 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Swanson is averaging 1.17 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Swanson is coming off a fight in which he was bullied from start to finish, ate some clean strikes and was quickly submitted after being taken down. Swanson is kind of in a must win situation considering he’ll be 36 years old at the end of the year and is riding a three-fight losing streak. Swanson is known for his ground game, scrambling and can hold his own on the canvas despite his poor luck with submissions. Swanson is also an accurate striker with obvious knockout power and is well conditioned that’s helped him win 10 of his 12 career decisions. There’s a lot to like about Swanson and his toughness, but his takedown defense is still questionable at best and these losses piling up don’t help his case. This will be Swanson’s third career fight in Canada.

Shane Burgos enters this fight with a 11-1 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by submission. Burgos has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a November win over Kurt Holobaugh. Burgos is averaging 6.54 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Burgos is averaging 0.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Burgos bounced back nicely from his first career loss with his first submission victory under the UFC banner. Burgos is now 4-1 at this level and is somebody who can start to fly up the rankings given that he just turned 28 years old. Burgos is a clean standup striker with a clear background in boxing, as he gets in and out with ease, has great head movement and puts together combinations well. Burgos uses his knees effectively in the clinch and has above-average wrestling for somebody who seems most comfortable standing up. Burgos has also shown his toughness in his limited action, as he took some clean shots from Charles Rosa and Calvin Kattar and hung in there for the most part. This will be Burgos’ first career fight outside of the United States.

Swanson at plus money would be a worthwhile bet if you were getting Swanson from a few years ago. The problem is Swanson seems to be a fighter on the decline and doesn’t have that same fire in his belly. Burgos is a promising prospect on the rise and somebody who could soon be pushing the top fighters within this division. Burgos is massive for this division, has extreme power, polished boxing skills and has proven himself on the canvas, even if past competition has been questionable. Burgos is somebody I’m putting a lot of stock into at the moment, and I’m not sure how anybody can back Swanson with any confidence right now. Burgos also has a 5.5 inch reach advantage, which is key in a fight that will likely have a lot of standup striking.

Burgos wins this fight and starts to put the rest of this division on notice.

Pick:
Shane Burgos -172

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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