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Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good - 2/2/19 UFC Fight Night 144 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good
Date & Time Saturday February 2, 2019, 10:30 PM (EST)
Location
Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Fortaleza, Brazil
The Line
The Line: Good +153 / Maia -167 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN+
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MMA | Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good
Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Demian Maia and Lyman Good fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 144 at the Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste.

Demian Maia enters this fight with a 25-9 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by submission. Maia has lost each his last three fights and is coming off a May loss to Kamaru Usman. Maia is averaging 1.78 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Maia is averaging 2.5 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 25 percent. Maia is in the worst stretch of his career with three straight losses, and you have to question if turning 42 later this year has anything to do with his recent struggles. The good news is that eight of Maia’s nine carer losses have been decisions, so he’s still hanging in there and capable of winning these fights. There’s no surprises ever with Maia, as he’s a grappling machine and easily one of the best ground fighters the spot has ever seen. Maia is a well decorated grappler who has 60 takedowns on the UFC level and is averaging 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes. Maia also has a vicious ground and pound attack, as he lands 43 percent of his strikes on the canvas. Simply put; Maia has the advantage if he can get a fight to the canvas. This will be Maia’s 11th career fight in Brazil, his birthplace.

Lyman Good enters this fight with a 20-4 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by knockout. Good has won four of his last five fights and is coming off a November win over Ben Saunders. Good is averaging 5.73 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Good is averaging 0.6 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Good is 2-1 under the UFC banner and is coming off a first round knockout where he landed 28 significant strikes. Good has shown to be a violent, aggressive striker and three of his last five victories have come by knockout. Good lands 68 percent of his strikes standing up, but he’s also been very effective in the clinch and likes to be the aggressor at all times. Good is a smooth athlete who has shown a ground game throughout his Bellator career, but he’s a fighter who has a boxing background and does his best work when he can unleash his striking power. This will clearly be Good’s biggest test on the UFC stage. This will be Good’s first career fight outside of the United States.

Talk about a reversal of fortune, as Maia is a rare favorite and Good is an underdog for the first time in the UFC. Despite all his victories and a successful MMA career overall, Maia has been overlooked by oddsmakers over the years and was somebody you can either get at plus money or as a very slight favorite. Oddmakers really like the Brazilian in this fight, however. This may be a good spot to back Good given Maia has lost his last three fights. With that said, Maia has a head and shoulders advantage on the canvas and it’s only a matter of time before the fight goes to the ground. Take away Cyborg’s striking and drag him into deep waters, and he’s not nearly as effective as the guy on his feet. This is a good chance for the old guy to get back in the win column. Maia is also 8-2 when fighting in his home country.

I like Maia to snap his three-fight losing streak.

Pick:
Demian Maia

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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