Drew Dober vs. Polo Reyes - 6/29/19 UFC on ESPN 3 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Drew Dober vs. Polo Reyes
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 8:30 PM (Target Center)
The Line: Reyes +252 / Dober -283 -- Over/Under:
Drew Dober and Polo Reyes fight Saturday during UFC on ESPN 3 at the Target Center.
Drew Dober enters this fight with a 20-9 record and has won 35 percent of his fights by knockout. Dober has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a March loss to Beneil Dariush. Dober is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Dober is averaging 0.97 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 18 percent. Dober watched his three-fight winning streak come to an end with a second round submission, something that’s becoming far too common in his losses. Each of Dober’s last four losses have been submissions if you want to throw in the loss to Leandro Silva that was later overturned due to a referrer mistake. Dober is a southpaw who has a deep background in Muay Thai and wrestling since an early age, so he’s highly effective in the clinch and is prepared for a lengthy, drawn out fight that tests both fighters conditioning. Ten of Dober’s last 12 victories have ended in either a decision or a submission. However, Dober has shown, mainly in his fight against Josh Burkman, that he has knockout potential in those hands so his standup cannot be overlooked at all. This will be Dober’s first career fight in Minnesota.
Polo Reyes enters this fight with a 8-5 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout. Reyes has won five of his last seven fights and is coming off a February loss to Damir Hadzovic. Reyes is averaging 6.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Reyes was knocked out for the second time in his last three fights and hopes to hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since 2013-14. Reyes is a balanced fighter with a background in Muay Thai and boxing, and he’s pretty much comfortable no matte where the fight goes. Reyes has a devastating ground and pound once he gains top position, and he’s usually in control once a fight goes to the canvas. Reyes also has a clean standup striking attack and has shown twice in the UFC just how powerful those hands are, as he’s earned performance of the night honors with clean knockouts. Reyes can get caught on these exchanges and can be sloppy at times, but El Toro will always like his chances in a standup striking contest. This will be Reyes’ fourth career fight in the United States.
Dober won’t have to worry about being submitted in this fight, but there’s enough other concerns that have me questioning these prices. Reyes is the bigger, more powerful fighter with a six-inch leg reach advantage, so he’s going to have his way as long as this fight is standing up. As long as Reyes stays standing, it’s only a matter of time before he lands something clean. Even with takedown attempts or in the clinch, Reyes is going to have his chances to punish Dober just by being the stronger, bigger fighter. At the end of the day, neither of these guys have been able to put everything together and sustain success. This is more of a toss-up fight in my eyes.
I’ll take a shot with Reyes and the big plus money.