Jack Hermansson vs. Jared Cannonier - 9/28/19 UFC Fight Night 160 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Jack Hermansson vs. Jared Cannonier
Saturday, September 28, 2019 at 3:30 PM (Royal Arena)
The Line: Hermansson -234 / Cannonier +206 -- Over/Under:
Jack Hermansson and Jared Cannonier fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 160 at the Royal Arena.
Jack Hermansson enters this fight with a 20-4 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by knockout. Hermansson has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off an April win over Ronaldo Souza. Hermansson is averaging 4.90 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Hermansson is averaging 2.38 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Hermansson is coming off a dominating performance were he doubled the strikes of his opponent while also producing three takedowns. Hermansson has now won four straight fights since being knocked out by Thiago Santos, and his last two wins are notable enough to put him in a possible title conversation at some point. Hermansson has an aggressive standup approach where he’s constantly forcing the issue and throwing these strong overhand strikes that have some knockout pop. Hermansson is also a pretty successful takedown artist and two of his last three wins have come by the guillotine choke. With an average of nearly 2.4 takedowns per 15 minutes on the UFC level, Hermansson forces his opponent to fight his fight and usually gets the best of it when he’s able to control the pace and kind of make it ugly. Hermansson is just constant pressure and is well conditioned, proving in his last fight he can be effective for all five rounds. This will be Hermansson’s second career fight in Sweden, his birthplace.
Jared Cannonier enters this fight with a 12-4 record and has won 67 percent of his fights by knockout. Cannonier has won eight of his last 12 fights and is coming off a May win over Anderson Silva. Cannonier is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Cannonier is averaging 0.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Cannonier is coming off another knockout victory after landing a hard leg kick and hurting Silva to the point he couldn’t continue due to injury. Five of Cannonier’s last seven wins have ended in knockout, and he has a chance to win three straight fights for the first time since 2013-14, where he got his start in Alaska. Cannonier is an athletic pressure fighter with good work rate and cardio, and he has clear power in his hands that has to be respected. Cannonier throws bombs standing up, but he’s also effective in the clinch and can more than hold his own on the canvas where he has good takedown ability and has three career submission victories. Cannonier is a balanced fighter who has been impressive in two middleweight fights and has a chance to really take his career to the next level with a victory here. This will be Cannonier’s first career fight in Sweden.
You could make a case for Cannonier here given his punching power and his standup overall, as he showed great pressure against Silva and did a fine job of mixing in leg kicks that eventually ended the fight. The problem is Hermansson is the more complete fighter who is more efficient standing up and has a clear edge on the canvas here given he started his career as a wrestler. Hermansson also has a five-inch leg reach advantage, which is massive given that this bout could see a lot of time standing up. You also have to throw in the fact this fight is in Sweden, a rare home event for Hermansson, and he’ll be looking to take advantage of it as he climbs the rankings.
Hermansson builds on his current momentum.