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Jan Blachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold - 7/6/19 UFC 239 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Jan Blachowicz vs. Luke Rockhold
Date & Time Saturday July 6, 2019, 10:30 PM (EDT)
Location
T-Mobile Arena
Las Vegas, Nevada
The Line
The Line: Blachowicz +158 / Rockhold -172 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
PPV
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Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Jan Blachowicz and Luke Rockhold fight Saturday during UFC 239 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Jan Blachowicz enters this fight with a 23-8 record and has won 39 percent of his fights by submission. Blachowicz has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a February loss to Thiago Santos. Blachowicz is averaging 3.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Blachowicz is averaging 1.46 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Blachowicz watched his four-fight winning streak come to an end once he decided to rush in against one of the most powerful strikers in the sport. Blachowicz displayed a patient style for the first two rounds and was in good position, but he made a horrible error that cost him big time and resulted in a clean knockout loss. It was the first time in eight years Blachowicz was knocked out. Blachowicz has a deep kickboxing background, so he has a lot of variety to his strikes and is quite accurate whether standing up or in the clinch. Blachowicz has that Polish toughness to him and showed in his last fight that he’s not afraid to take chances. Blachowicz is also highly effective with his takedowns and two of his last four wins have come by submission. Blachowicz is much more comfortable as a standup striker, but he’s far more than a one-trick pony and can certainly hold his own if a fight goes to the canvas. This will be Blachowicz’s second career fight in Nevada.

Luke Rockhold enters this fight with a 16-4 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by submission. Rockhold has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a February loss (2018) to Yoel Romero. Rockhold is averaging 4.91 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 56 percent. Rockhold is averaging 1.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Rockhold continues to take such a long time between fights, as this will be his fifth fight since 2015, and he’s coming off a brutal knockout loss where he ate two bombs from Romero. We’ve now seen Rockhold get brutally knocked out twice in his last three fights and that raises serious questions about his chin moving forward. When in good form, Rockhold is one of the more balanced fighters in the division, as he’s an accurate striker who delivers strong kicks and a good ground and pound, but he’s also a polished wrestler who has nine submission victories. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Rockhold is extremely dangerous once on the canvas and has ended five fights through the rear-naked choke. This will be Rockhold’s third career fight in Nevada.

This line is kind of surprising when you consider Rockhold hasn’t fought in over a year and has gotten slept in two of his last three fights. This is also Rockhold’s debut in the light heavyweight division, and there’s a history of guys needing a fight or two in order to make adjustments to new weight. Rockhold also has questions with his chin that need answers, and I’m not sure I love him moving up in weight against guys even stronger. Blachowicz would have his work cut out for him if this fight went to the ground, but he’d be able to hold his own standing up and certainly has the power to give Rockhold flashbacks, as long as he learned his lesson from his past bout.

I like Blachowicz and the plus money.

Pick:
Jan Blachowicz +158

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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