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Jim Miller vs. Clay Guida - 8/3/19 UFC on ESPN 5 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Jim Miller vs. Clay Guida
Date & Time Saturday August 3, 2019, 11:30 PM (EDT)
Location
Prudential Center
Newark, New Jersey
The Line
The Line: Guida +158 / Miller -172 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN
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Jim Miller and Clay Guida fight Saturday during UFC on ESPN 5 at the Prudential Center.

Jim Miller enters this fight with a 30-13 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by submission. Miller has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a April win over Jason Gonzalez. Miller is averaging 2.78 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Miller is averaging 1.69 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Miller is coming off one of his best performances in recent memory, putting together a first round submission at UFC Fight Night 150 and earning performance of the night honors. Miller now looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2016 when he got a win at UFC 205. Miller is most known for his cardio and wrestling, as he simply wears on his opponent and does most of his damage on the ground. Out of 30 career wins for Miller, 26 of them have come by either submission or decision, and he’s only been submitted three times in his career, with two of those coming in the last four years. Simply put; Miller loves his chances once he gets his opponent off his feet. This will be Miller’s 20th career fight in New Jersey, his birthplace.

Clay Guida enters this fight with a 35-18 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by decision. Guida has split his last 14 fights and is coming off a May win over B.J. Penn. Guida is averaging 2.41 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 32 percent. Guida is averaging 3.11 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Guida has been a mixed bag over the years, but he’s putting together a decent stretch as of late with wins in three of his last four fights. As he approaches 38 years old, this is probably Guida’s last chance to continue challenging the big names and keeping his name alive in this sport. Guida is not the most accurate striker in the world and may be a bit too wild for his own good, but he’s one of the more entertaining fighters in MMA history. Guida is a ball of energy and as tough as they come. Guida always comes forward, goes for takedowns aggressively, throws relentless strikes and has only been knocked out twice despite being in some wars over the years. Guida is the definition of a brawler and will put on a show win or lose. This will be Guida’s second career fight in New Jersey.

Miller should probably be favored to win this fight due to him being more technically sound, the longer fighter and his deep background in wrestling. Miller could kind of tame the wild beast that is Guida, if he’s able to get this fight on the canvas. With that said, there’s just something about getting plus money with an aggressive, relentless fighter like Guida that is hard to pass up. Fighters who leave it all in the octagon and are going to go for the kill always have a shot to win and will give you bang for your buck. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see Guida land a clean combination and win this fight. Miller hasn't exactly been able to string wins together these last few years. 

I’ve been on an underdog spree these last few cards, but I see value with Guida here.

Pick:
Clay Guida +158

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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