Valentina Shevchenko vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk
|Date & Time||Saturday December 8, 2018, 10:00 PM (EST)|
The Line: Shevchenko -351 / Jedrzejczyk +309 -- Over/Under: 4.5
Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Valentina Shevchenko fight Saturday during UFC 231 at Scotiabank Arena.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk enters this fight with a 15-2 record and has won 67 percent of her fights by decision. Jedrzejczyk has won 10 of her last 12 fights and is coming off a July win over Tecia Torres. Jedrzejczyk is averaging 6.44 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Jedrzejczyk is averaging 0.15 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Jedrzejczyk rebounded from back-to-back losses to Rose Namajunas, as she dominated for three rounds and earned the decision victory. You could make a strong argument that Jedrzejczyk should have just one loss on her record, but that’s besides the point heading into this bout. Jedrzejczyk is an extremely decorated kick boxer who is highly effective with her knees and legs, and she’s an overall highly efficient striker with superb accuracy and a background in boxing. Jedrzejczyk has great technique, knows how to finish her opponent despite most of her fights ending in decision, and she usually always has the advantage when fighting standing up. Jedrzejczyk is also conditioned for the long haul, as each of her last five victories have gone the distance, and a lot of those bouts were five rounds. This will be Jedrzejczyk’s second career fight in Canada.
Valentina Shevchenko enters this fight with a 15-3 record and has won 47 percent of her fights by submission. Shevchenko has won eight of her last 10 fights and is coming off a February win over Priscila Cachoeira. Shevchenko is averaging 3.31 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Shevchenko is averaging 1.82 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Shevchenko bounced back nicely from her split decision loss to Amanda Nunes, as she returned to flyweight and earned performance of the night with a second round submission victory. Shevchenko is one of the tougher fighters to prepare for due to her being an expert in muay thai, having a deep kickboxing background and being highly effective in the clinch. Shevchenko is at her best standing up, but she’s proven in her last three fights just how effective she is with her grappling and finishing ability. Shevchenko has a great ground and pound attack, despite not producing a knockout win since her 2014 bout against Hellen Bastos. This will be Shevchenko’s second career fight in Canada.
Shevchenko is the more balanced fighter, as she’s a bit more comfortable on the canvas and can also hold her own standing up with a variety of strikes. I get why she’s the favorite, but this line is quite insane. Jedrzejczyk is a more than respectable opponent who will have a slight size advantage and is usually the aggressor in her fights. These odds are quite surprising given how Jedrzejczyk has looked in her past fights and the fact she’s had some of her best performances on the biggest stage when defending Women's Strawweight Championship.
In terms of value, I’m going to back the underdog in this fight and take Jedrzejczyk. I just can’t pass up this price.