Jose Aldo vs. Renato Moicano
|Date & Time||Saturday February 2, 2019, 9:30 PM (EST)|
Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
The Line: Aldo +128 / Moicano -142 -- Over/Under:
Jose Aldo and Renato Moicano fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 144 at the Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste.
Jose Aldo enters this fight with a 27-4 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Aldo has split his last six fights and is coming off a July win over Jeremy Stephens. Aldo is averaging 3.51 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Aldo is averaging 0.73 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 68 percent. Aldo has been a bit of hit or miss as of late and has a chance to win back-to-back fights for the first time since 2014. The good news is Aldo is coming off performance of the night honors with a first round knockout, so the confidence should be back somewhat. Also, it’s important to note that those three recent losses came against Conor McGregor and Max Holloway, so it’s nothing to be ashamed of. Aldo is one of the more balanced fighters in the UFC, as he’s an above-average striker with knockout potential and an accurate takedown artist when he looks for his ground game. Aldo is conditioned for the long game and is averaging nearly 13 and a half minutes per fight. The concern is we’ve seen Aldo get knocked out in three of his last five fights, and fighters tend to be a little timid after eating the canvas so much. This will be Aldo’s 13th career fight in Brazil, his birthplace.
Renato Moicano enters this fight with a 13-1-1 record and has won 54 percent of his fights by decision. Moicano has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a August win over Cub Swanson. Moicano is averaging 5.71 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Moicano is averaging 1.27 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Moicano has put the loss to Brian Ortega behind him with back-to-back victories, and he just earned performance of the night honors with a first round submission. Moicano is an athletic fighter who has displayed good accuracy in his strikes and lands 95 percent of his shots standing up. Moicano is most known for his ground game, as he’s aggressive and accurate with his takedowns, and all 13 of his wins have come by decision or submission. Moicano is averaging nearly 12 minutes per fight and over a takedown per 15 minutes, so his opponent better be prepared for a bout that eventually goes to the canvas. Moicano is a slippery, lengthy fighter who is hard to get comfortable against. This will be Moicano’s 12th career fight in Brazil, his birthplace.
Moicano is the bigger fighter and will have the edge if this fight goes to the canvas, as it’s where he’s mot comfortable and doesn’t need much to find a submission hold. You can understand why Moicano is the favorite given the size advantage and his polished grappling skills. However, getting Aldo at plus money is too valuable for me to pass up. Aldo is the more balanced fighter between the two, and he has a takedown defensive percentage of 92 percent. Needless to say, Moicano will spend a lot of time standing up in this fight, and that’s where the 32-year-old can go to work. Also, two of the last three fights Aldo has been the underdog, he’s won (Stephens and Frankie Edgar).
I like the value of Aldo and the plus money in what should be a chess match of a fight.