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Liz Carmouche vs. Lucie Pudilova - 2/23/19 UFC Fight Night 145 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Liz Carmouche vs. Lucie Pudilova
Date & Time Saturday February 23, 2019, 3:30 PM (EST)
Location
O2 Arena
Prague, Czech Republic
The Line
The Line: Pudilova -105 / Carmouche -125 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
ESPN+
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MMA | Liz Carmouche vs. Lucie Pudilova
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Liz Carmouche and Lucie Pudilova fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 145 at the O2 Arena.

Liz Carmouche enters this fight with a 11-6 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by knockout. Carmouche has split her last 12 fights and is coming off a July win over Jennifer Maia. Carmouche is averaging 2.72 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Carmouche is averaging 3.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 64 percent. Carmouche is enjoying some of her most consistent success at the moment under the UFC banner and a win here would be one of the biggest of her career. Carmouche has seen each of her last six fights end in a decision, and that has a lot to do with her defensive and sometimes passive approach. Carmouche does have some pop in her strikes and is very effective with her ground and pound, but she can sometimes be hesitant to let her hands go and usually waits for her opponent to make the first move. Still, a military woman, Carmouche has a high fight IQ and will certainly respond once she’s under attack. It’s all about getting to that point sooner and being the aggressor for Carmouche. This will be Carmouche’s first career fight in the Czech Republic.

Lucie Pudilova enters this fight with a 8-3 record and has won 50 percent of her fights by decision. Pudilova has won five of her last seven fights and is coming off a September loss two Irene Aldana. Pudilova is averaging 5.53 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Pudilova is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Pudilova is coming off a controversial split decision that earned fight of the night honors, a bout that produced a combined 462 strikes. That’s the name of the game for Pudilova, as she’s always working in the octagon and looking to land strikes. Seven of Pudilova’s 11 fights have ended in decision, but it’s certainly not due to a lack of effort. Pudilova doesn’t have much pop behind her hands, but she’s willing to trade with the best of them and she’s proven her toughness with all three of her losses ending in decision. Pudilova is a fighters fighter, who is going to continue to come forward and give it all she’s got, win, lose or draw. This will be Pudilova’s fifth career fight in the Czech Republic, her birthplace.

This is going to be an interesting fight, as Carmouche is the defensive, patient fighter who picks her spots well, while Pudilova is highly aggressive and is always letting her hands go. Carmouche is certainly more battle tested, but she’s also a fighter who has been on the losing end in majority of her biggest fights. Pudilova has the size advantage and has never lost (4-0) when fighting in her home of the Czech Republic. I simply question how the older, slower fighter in Carmouche is going to handle this ball of energy that is Pudilova. While she doesn’t have the power to scare opponents, Pudilova is always on the attack and that’s enough to make Carmouche uncomfortable.

I like Pudilova to get her fifth career victory in her home country.

Pick:
Lucie Pudilova -105

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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