Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar - 7/27/19 UFC 240 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar
Saturday, July 27, 2019 at 10:45 PM (Rogers Centre )
The Line: Holloway -389 / Edgar +336 -- Over/Under:
Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar fight Saturday during UFC 240 at the Rogers Place.
Max Holloway enters this fight with a 20-4 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Holloway has won 13 of his last 14 fights and is coming off an April loss to Dustin Poirier. Holloway is averaging 6.9 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Holloway is averaging 0.32 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 83 percent. Holloway had his 13-fight winning streak come to an end in a five-round beatdown where he was just peppered with strikes and couldn’t keep up with the pace and power his opponent set from the start. Holloway deserves a ton of credit for standing in there and earning fight of the night honors, but we’re certainly not used to seeing Blessed get outworked like that. It was probably the first time we’ve seen Holloway get dominated standing up, as he’s usually the one handing out the beating. Holloway is one of the most well conditioned fighters in the sport who has proven he can be aggressive from start to finish, and he has a come forward pressure style that usually drowns his opponent with overwhelming strikes. Holloway also has a takedown defense of 83 percent, so he usually forces his opponent to fight his style. A tough fighter who can take a beating and not get discouraged, Holloway still has to like his chances with anybody on his feet. This will be Holloway’s fourth career fight in Canada.
Frankie Edgar enters this fight with a 23-6-1 record and has won 52 percent of his fights by decision. Edgar has won eight his last 10 fights and is coming off an April (2018) win over Cub Swanson. Edgar is averaging 3.59 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Edgar is averaging 2.47 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. It’s been over a year since we’ve seen Edgar in the octagon, as he’s had to recover from a torn bicep muscle, so it’s going to be interesting to see if there’s any rust. Edgar is used to fighting twice a year, and this is the first time he’s been gone for over a year since turning pro 14 years ago. Edgar is an aggressive takedown artist with a polished grappling attack and is well conditioned enough to outlast most opponents. Edgar is tough as nails and is the sort of fighter who will continue to stand in there despite getting pounded and no real chance to win. Edgar has only been finished once in six career losses, which was that knockout punch from Brian Ortega last year. A high volume fighter with a background in boxing, wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Edgar is old school and is still willing to compete even though he’s been in some wars and is approaching 38 years old. This will be Edgar’s first career fight in Canada.
There’s no reason why Holloway shouldn’t win this fight, as he’s the younger, longer fighter with much more polished boxing and can simply breakdown Edgar over time with just relentless clean shots. Yes, Edgar is tough and can take a punch, but not many guys have the gas tank like Holloway and keep coming forward the way he does. Holloway should be able to get the finish and it wouldn’t be surprising if it came before the third round. As usual, predicting the fight not to go the distance is a lot cheaper than predicting a fighter to win, so that’s what I’m going to side with in this main event.