Nikita Krylov vs. Ovince Saint Preux - 4/13/19 UFC 236 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Nikita Krylov vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Saturday, April 13, 2019 at 9:00 PM (State Farm Arena)
The Line: OSP -102 / Krylov -112 -- Over/Under:
Ovince Saint Preux and Nikita Krylov fight Saturday during UFC 236 at the State Farm Arena.
Ovince Saint Preux enters this fight with a 22-11 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Saint Preux has split his last 14 fights and is coming off an October loss to Dominick Reyes. Saint Preux is averaging 2.6 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Saint Preux is averaging 0.88 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 29 percent. Saint Preux continues to be a bit hit or miss with his results and is coming off a decision loss in which he ate 101 strikes and couldn’t get comfortable offensively. Just when it looked like Saint Preux was putting things together again, which included earning performance of the night in three of his previous four fights, he loses all three rounds and takes a bit of a step back. Still, Saint Preux is one of the more proven fighters in the light heavyweight devision and is extremely dangerous standing up, with knockout power in both hands and some devastating leg kicks. Saint Preux isn’t the fighter you can rush in on, and he has one of the best ground and pounds to close the deal. Saint Preux has enough wrestling to survive on the canvas, but he’s most effective on his feet where he can unleash his power and use his size/athleticism to his advantage. This will be Saint Preux’s second career fight in Georgia.
Nikita Krylov enters this fight with a 24-6 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by submission. Krylov has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a September loss to Jan Blachowicz. Krylov is averaging 5.59 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Krylov is averaging 0.62 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 28 percent. Krylov is coming off his fifth career submission loss and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Krylov is a tough Ukraine fighter with a proven chin and a powerful standup striking game where he mixes in his leg kicks and knees well. Krylov is just as effective in the clinch and also has a strong ground and pound as well. While his striking can’t be ignored, Krylov is a proven wrestler with 14 submission victories under his belt is extremely dangerous once he gets his opponents back, as five of his wins have finished via the rear-naked choke. This will be Krylov’s second career fight in Georgia.
If forced to pick a winner in this fight, I’d give Krylov the edge because of his ground game. Krylov can trade strikes with OSP, but he’d win this fight with his wrestling and could very well force his 15th career submission. Saint Preux probably has a slight edge standing up with his reach advantage and raw power, and he could certainly take advantage of Krylov’s aggressiveness on a counter strike. Krylov would still be my pick to win. However, we’re getting a reasonable price for this fight to not reach the judges. Krylov has never had a decision in his 30 career fights and OSP has had only six decisions in his last 19 fights. These guys are finishers and usually when you get this style of fight, somebody is going to get their hand raised early.
Instead of picking a near toss-up fight, I’ll pay the extra juice to predict a finish.