Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kevin Lee
|Date & Time||Saturday May 18, 2019, 10:00 PM (EDT)|
Blue Cross Arena
Rochester, New York
The Line: Rafael dos Anjos +103 / Kevin Lee -117 -- Over/Under:
Rafael dos Anjos and Kevin Lee fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 152 at the Blue Cross Arena.
Rafael dos Anjos enters this fight with a 28-11 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. dos Anjos has split his last eight fights and is coming off a November loss to Kamaru Usman. dos Anjos is averaging 3.62 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. dos Anjos is averaging 1.96 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. dos Anjos is coming off back-to-back frustrating decision losses and has lost four of his last seven fights since knocking out Cowboy three and a half years ago. With three straight losses a possibility and him approaching 35 years old, this is starting to feel like a must win fight for dos Anjos. Of course, dos Anjos is one of the more polished strikers within the division, as he mixes in his punches and kicks well, and he packs a serious ground and pound once on the canvas. With a polished boxing approach and a back belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, dos Anjos can hold his own wherever the fight goes, but he’s much more effective on his feet. dos Anjos also has great stamina to be effective each round and has been on the winning side in 14 of 22 career decisions. This will be dos Anjos’ first career fight in New York.
Kevin Lee enters this fight with a 17-4 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. Lee has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a December loss to Al Iaquinta. Lee is averaging 4.06 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Lee is averaging 3.10 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Lee has lost two of his last three fights and is coming off a decision loss despite out-landing his opponent at a lesser percentage. Lee hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Lee will make his debut at welterweight in this contest and it’s going to be interesting to see how he handles the move up. As for his skill set, Lee has the potential to be as good as he wants to be. He’s a terrific athlete with good enough striking to hold his own standing up and enough power to always keep him in fights. Lee has a nasty ground and pound and it’s there where he does some of his best work. Lee is also one of the better wrestlers in the sport and five of his eight career submission victories have come via the rear-naked choke. If he keeps improving, Lee is more than capable of becoming champion at some point. This will be Lee’s first career fight in New York.
Getting dos Anjos as a slight underdog against somebody who is making his debut in this weightclass has some value. dos Anjos is a former champion and probably has the edge in standup striking, so I can’t knock anybody who is siding with the plus money. However, I like Lee at welterweight, as he’s naturally a big, strong guy with a massive upper body. Lee is going to have a strength and size advantage in this fight and that’s going to help when this fight goes to the ground. If Lee can get this fight on the canvas and control it with his wrestling, he should cruise to victory.
The value is probably with RDA as a slight underdog, but Lee should win this fight.