Roosevelt Roberts vs. Vinc Pichel - 6/29/19 UFC on ESPN 3 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Vinc Pichel
Saturday, June 29, 2019 at 9:00 PM (Target Center)
The Line: Roberts -279 / Pichel +249 -- Over/Under:
Roosevelt Roberts and Vinc Pichel fight Saturday during UFC on ESPN 3 at the Target Center.
Roosevelt Roberts enters this fight with a 8-0 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by submission. This will be Roberts’ fifth fight since 2018 and is coming off an April win over Thomas Gifford. Roberts is averaging 3.31 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Roberts is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent. Roberts is quietly moving up as one of the better young prospects in the lightweight division and has a chance to turn even more heads on a main card. Roberts is an exciting fighter who has finished seven of his eight opponents and is highly efficient with his takedowns and ground and pound. Roberts always seems to gain top position and has been a bear up to this point, not allowing his opponent to get up and either destroying them with heavy strikes or finding a submission hold. Roberts is always looking for a chance to finish a fight and showed against Darrell Horcher that he doesn’t need much of an opening. I’m still interested to see how Roberts deals with being on the bottom of the canvas. This will be Roberts’ first career fight in Minnesota.
Vinc Pichel enters this fight with a 11-2 record and has won 73 percent of his fights by knockout. Pichel has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a June (2018) loss to Gregor Gillespie. Pichel is averaging 3.12 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Pichel is averaging 4.25 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 63 percent. Pichel will fight for the first time in a year, as he recovered from a back injury and a motorcycle accident that left him not remembering exactly what happened. Pichel was submitted in the second round of his last fight and hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Pichel is a crafty fighter who is a striker at heart, mixes in his kicks well and usually closes the distance where he can land knees and produce a takedown. Pichel has had great success with takedowns on the UFC level, but he has yet to win a fight by submission and usually turns to ground and pound once on the canvas. Pichel also has shown in the past to have one-punch knockout potential, so he’s just as dangerous on his feet. This will be Pichel’s first career fight in Minnesota.
This line is quite interesting when you consider Pichel is the veteran and probably the more polished striker at this stage. Roberts is oozing potential and somebody to watch closely, but he’s still inexperienced in some areas and this is easily his biggest test yet. With that said, there’s a lot to like with Roberts here. He’s the longer fighter and has been money on the canvas, which plays into his hands given that Pichel has struggled stopping takedowns. Pichel also exposes his head far too often when attempting his takedowns, and you know Roberts will see that and look to lock in a Guillotine Choke if possible. There’s also the fact Pichel has been out of the octagon for a year now and who knows how that’s going to impact somebody who will be 37 years old in a few months.
The price isn’t great, but I like Roberts to keep this momentum going.