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Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone - 6/8/19 UFC 238 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone
Date & Time Saturday June 8, 2019, 11:00 PM (EDT)
United Center
Chicago, Illinois
The Line
The Line: Ferguson -162 / Cerrone +148 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
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Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone fight Saturday during UFC 238 at the United Center.

Tony Ferguson enters this fight with a 24-3 record and has won 46 percent of his fights by knockout. Ferguson has won each of his last 11 fights and is coming off an October win over Anthony Pettis. Ferguson is averaging 5.51 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Ferguson is averaging 0.60 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Ferguson is averaging just one fight the last three years, but he’s coming off a bloodbath two rounds that earned fight of the night honors and was easily one of the best fights of 2018. It was pretty much what Ferguson is in 10 minutes, as he was dropped a couple of times but kept finding a way to get up, keep coming forward and ultimately getting the best of his opponent. Ferguson is simply a savage in the octagon with a high work rate and ridiculous cardio that allows him to keep pushing even in the later rounds. Ferguson is one of the tougher fighters in the sport and it’s allowed him to win 11 straight fights while earning bonuses in six of his last seven. In order for somebody to snap this winning streak, they’re going to earn it, as Ferguson doesn’t go down easily and the way he keeps coming forward can break the spirit of his opponent. This will be Ferguson’s first career fight in Illinois.

Donald Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-11 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. Cerrone has won four of his last five fights and is coming off a May win over Al Iaquinta. Cerrone is averaging 4.2 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Cerrone is averaging 1.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Cerrone is coming off a five round beatdown of Iaquinta, a bout that earned fight of the night and put Cowboy on a three-fight winning streak. Cerrone has been on a tear since the birth of his son and will be fighting for the third time already this year. Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A total of 27 of Cerrone’s 36 victories have come by some sort of stoppage. A polished wrestler who almost always has the edge on the canvas, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. A tough fighter who clearly isn’t backing down from the competition, Cerrone appears to be a man on a mission at the moment. This will be Cerrone’s third career fight in Illinois.

This may end up being the best fight on the card when you consider just how tough both of these guys are and the mentality they bring into the octagon. It’s going to be a physical war and you could make a case for either side. Cerrone is tough to bet against right now with what he’s done in his last three fights and the fact he’s won four of his last five fights as an underdog. Despite being a fan favorite, Cowboy goes into most fights being doubted and somehow comes out on top. That’s a fighter worthy of the plus money. With that said, Ferguson is somebody who throws everything and the kitchen sink at an opponent and just doesn’t take losing for an option. His pressure is sure to make Cowboy uncomfortable, and he also has a 3.5-inch reach advantage, which will be key in the standup. I’ve lost betting against Cowboy a few times, and I have to do it again here. Ferguson is just a class above and you have to question if Cerrone is biting off a little more than he can chew with this being his third fight already this year.

Ferguson wins his 12th straight fight.

Tony Ferguson -162

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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