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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Eye - 6/8/19 UFC 238 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Eye
Date & Time Saturday June 8, 2019, 11:15 PM (EDT)
United Center
Chicago, Illinois
The Line
The Line: Shevchenko -1233 / Eye +917 -- Over/Under:
TV Channel
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Valentina Shevchenko and Jessica Eye fight Saturday during UFC 238 at the United Center.

Valentina Shevchenko enters this fight with a 16-3 record and has won 44 percent of her fights by submission. Shevchenko has won nine of her last 11 fights and is coming off a December win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Shevchenko is averaging 3.36 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Shevchenko is averaging 2.06 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Shevchenko is coming off a convincing decision victory where she landed 53 percent of her total strikes and produced 10 takedowns. Shevchenko won the flyweight title in just her second fight since returning to the devision. Shevchenko isn’t the most powerful fighter on the women’s side, but you could argue she’s the most efficient, as she’s highly accurate with her strikes and has a good variety thanks to her background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. Shevchenko has an impressive work rate and can overwhelm her opponent once she gets her timing down. Shevchenko is very effective with counters and knows how to close distance well that set up those leg kicks nicely. While her stand up striking is probably where she’s most comfortable, Shevchenko has seven career submissions and a black belt in Judo, so don’t sleep on her grappling and ground game. This will be Shevchenko’s second career fight in Illinois.

Jessica Eye enters this fight with a 14-6 record and has won 71 percent of her fights by decision. Eye has split her last eight fights and is coming off a December win over Katlyn Chookagian. Eye is averaging 3.63 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Eye is averaging 0.53 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Eye went from losing four straight fights and looking like she wasn’t going to get any more chances under the UFC banner to winning three straight and challenging for a belt. It’s amazing what can happen when you return to a more comfortable weightclass. In her last fight, Eye clearly outworked the Blonde Fighter and it shouldn’t have been a split decision if we’re being honest. Eye is mainly known for her striking and her aggressiveness, as she’s often a fast starter and can be a bit sloppy at times due to the amount of shots she throws. Eye doesn’t have much game changing power, but her work rate is why she’s been able to win 10 of her 15 career decisions. Eye doesn’t exactly do anything spectacular and her ground game is questionable at best, but she’s simply an aggressive, tough fighter who doesn’t back down from a brawl. While the results may not always be there, you can respect Eye’s toughness and gamesmanship, knowing she’s going to compete. This will be Eye’s second career fight in Illinois.

It’s nice to see Eye work her way back into the thick of things and get out of that slump. The bad news is this is a terrible matchup for her. Eye isn’t efficient enough to trade with Shevchenko and her lack of defense is what makes this such a lopsided contest. Eye lacks the speed to get in and get out, and she doesn’t have much head movement to her game. A polished stand up striker such as Shevchenko is going to land some big shots and is going to hurt Eye due to her lack of head movement. Shevchenko is not the fighter you want to trade with and certainly isn’t the fighter you can fight standing up without making defense a top priority.

There’s a reason why these odds are so lopsided. I’ll take Shevchenko by finish to actually give me some sort of value.

Valentina Shevchenko By Finish

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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