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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors - 6/11/15 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Golden State Warriors (80-20) at Cleveland Cavaliers (67-32)
Date & Time Thursday June 11, 2015, 9:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 -- Over/Under: 193
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The Cleveland Cavaliers go for a commanding 3-1 series lead tonight against the Golden State Warriors in Game 4.

You would be forgiven if you wrote off the Cavaliers after they lost Kyrie Irving to a season-ending knee injury after Game 1, but they've since won Games 2 and 3 to move to a surprising 2-1 series lead. LeBron James took full control of the game and methodically worked his way to a game-high 40 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists while Tristan Thompson had a nice double-double of 10 points and 13 rebounds, but once again it was Matthew Dellavedova who scored 20 points and played a major role in holding Stephen Curry to just three points in the first half. As a team, the Cavs were once again fantastic on the defensive end, holding the Warriors to 37 first-half points and just 55 points after three quarters, but a lapse in concentration saw them having to really fight after nearly blowing a 20-point lead late in the third quarter.

As for the Warriors, it all begins with Stephen Curry who shook off a poor first half by pouring in 24 points in the second half, but it was all in vain as the rest of the team struggled mightily. Klay Thompson poured in 34 points in Game 2 but had just 14 points last night while Andre Iguodala added 15 points off the bench. As a team, the Warriors shot just 40 percent from the field and final score would have finished very lopsided had it not been for Curry's late flurry of three pointers. The Warriors just can't beat the Cavs unless they get more from their role players like Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes, so don't be surprised if we see one or two changes from Steve Kerr for Game 4.

In ATS trends, the Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Eastern Conference and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a road loss, while the Cavs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a win.

Head to head, the Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Before the series started, I really had the these teams tied at 2-2 going into Game 5 but for some reason my gut is now telling me that the confident Cavs are going to stay hot and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I know the Warriors need to put together their best effort to level the series but I just can't go past LeBron, (Dellavedova) and the Cavs at home.

Cleveland +2.5
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