Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs - 4/20/19 NBA Game 4 Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, April 20, 2019 at 4:30 PM (AT&T Center)
The Line: San Antonio Spurs -3.5 -- Over/Under: 208
The Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs meet Saturday in game four of the NBA Western Conference playoffs at the AT&T Center.
The Denver Nuggets need a win here to tie up the series at 2-2 before heading back home for game five. The Denver Nuggets are averaging 106 points on 47.3 percent shooting and allowing 108 points on 47.7 percent shooting. Gary Harris is averaging 18.3 points and three assists while Nikola Jokic is averaging 17.7 points and nine rebounds. Jamal Murray is the third double-digit scorer and Paul Millsap is grabbing four rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc and 64.2 percent from the free throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 37.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41.3 rebounds per game. The Denver Nuggets have lost six of their last seven road games.
The San Antonio Spurs can tae complete control of this series with a win here and a 3-1 lead. The San Antonio Spurs are averaging 108 points on 47.7 percent shooting and allowing 106 points on 47.3 percent shooting. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.7 points and 4.3 assists while Derrick White is averaging 23 points and four rebounds. LaMarcus Aldridge is the third double-digit scorer and Bryn Forbes is grabbing four rebounds. The San Antonio Spurs are shooting 37.3 percent from beyond the arc and 76.6 percent from the free throw line. The San Antonio Spurs are allowing 38.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.3 rebounds per game. The San Antonio Spurs have won 15 of their last 17 home games.
The Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio and the favorite is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings. The under is 17-7 in Spurs last 24 overall. The under is 20-8 in Nuggets last 28 overall.
I had the San Antonio Spurs winning this series due to the experience edge, and they're a team that would be pushing for a sweep if it weren't for Jamal Murray catching fire in the fourth quarter of game two. The Spurs have been in control pretty much for 11 of the 12 quarters this series and have been one of the more trustworthy teams at home all season long, which includes wins in 15 of their last 17 tries. The Denver Nuggets are playing like the young team they are and the moment seems too big for them. I'll lay the reasonable chalk with the Spurs, as they put a stranglehold on this series heading back to Denver for game five.