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Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs - 4/27/19 NBA - Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
Date & Time Saturday April 27, 2019, 10:00 PM (EDT)
Location
Pepsi Center
Denver, Colorado
The Line
The Line: Denver Nuggets -5.5 -- Over/Under: 210
TV Channel
TNT
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Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets meet Saturday in game seven of the NBA Western Conference playoffs at the Pepsi Center.

The San Antonio Spurs will make it out of the first round of the playoffs for the sixth time in the last eight years with a victory here. The San Antonio Spurs are averaging 106.2 points on 47.9 percent shooting and allowing 107.7 points on 47 percent shooting. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 22.5 points and 4.3 assists while LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 20.7 points and 9.3 rebounds. Derrick White is the third double-digit scorer and Rudy Gay is grabbing seven rebounds. The San Antonio Spurs are shooting 35.3 percent from beyond the arc and 75.2 percent from the free throw line. The San Antonio Spurs are allowing 39.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.2 rebounds per game. The San Antonio Spurs split their last 10 road games.

The Denver Nuggets will make it out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2008-09 with a victory here. The Denver Nuggets are averaging 107.7 points on 47 percent shooting and allowing 106.2 points on 47.9 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 23.5 points and 11.7 rebounds while Jamal Murray is averaging 18.3 points and 4.2 assists. Gary Harris is the third double-digit scorer and Paul Millsap is grabbing 4.3 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 39.1 percent from beyond the arc and 73.2 percent from the free throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 35.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42.5 rebounds per game. The Denver Nuggets have won 18 of their last 22 home games.

The Spurs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. The Nuggets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games, 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Southwest. The Spurs are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Denver. The over is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 overall. The under is 17-8 in Spurs last 25 overall.

Home teams dominate game sevens in NBA, as they're winning 79 percent of the time. However, four of the last seven game sevens have been won by the road team, including each of the last two. The Denver Nuggets are much more comfortable at home where they win by an average fo 10.1 points and are 26-17 ATS on the year. The San Antonio Spurs have had their issues on the road all season long and didn't look great their last two games at the Pepsi Center. With that said, I had the Spurs winning this series because of their experience, and experience is usually the biggest factor when it comes to a game seven. The pressure is massive, everybody is on pins and needles and you often see the less mature team come up small. Nerves takeover in game sevens. The Nuggets are more than capable of winning this game, but the veteran Spurs are far more trustworthy in a game like this. I want the points.

Pick:
San Antonio Spurs +5.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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