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Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - 6/14/15 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Cleveland Cavaliers (67-32) at Golden State Warriors (80-20)
Date & Time Sunday June 14, 2015, 8:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Golden State Warriors -8.5 -- Over/Under: 195.5
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The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers collide for Game 5 of the NBA Finals.

Trailing by 2-1 in the NBA Finals, the Warriors were in need of change to level the series so coach Steve Kerr decided to change up his starting lineup and it made all the difference. For the first time since joining the Warriors, Andre Iguodala was inserting into the starting lineup and provided the team with instant offense, scoring a season-high 22 points with four triples on 8 of 15 shooting which really got the Warriors off to a hot start as they led by seven points after the first quarter and 12 points after the first half. In fact, the Warriors didn't feature a recognized center for the majority of the game as Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights each played less than three minutes which really spread the floor for pick-and-roll action for Stephen Curry who delivered with 22 points and six assists. Draymond Green added 17 points and six assists, Harrison Barnes shoook off a scoreless Game 3 and finished with 14 points while Klay Thompson had just nine points.

As for the Cavaliers. Timofey Mozgov had himself a massive game of 28 points and 10 rebounds on 9 of 16 shooting, while Tristan Thompson added 12 points and 13 rebounds, but that's where the positives ended as LeBron James flirted with a triple-double but finished with just 20 points on 7 of 22 shooting. Also, Matthew Dellavedova shot just 3 of 14 for his 10 points while still showing signs of fatigue and cramping from Game 3 which meant that either Iman Shumpert of JR Smith had to step up offensively, but neither could find the bottom of net, combining for just nine points on 4 of 21 shooting. The Cavs reminded us of how much they lean on LeBron's offense to win games, because they only really play a total of seven players, so someone definitely needs to step up in Game 5.

In ATS trends, the Cavs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double digit loss at home, while the Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a win of more than 10 points.

Head to head, the Cavs are 5-11 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall and 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings in Golden State.

The Warriors really outplayed the Cavs in Game 4 to level the series, but now the pressure is on them to win at home to move to within one win of the NBA Championship and I'm confident they'll be able to do that. However, with the way this series has gone so far, laying this many points just seems like too much.

Cleveland +8.5
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