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Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors - 6/7/19 NBA Game 4 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors
Date & Time Friday June 7, 2019, 9:00 PM (EDT)
Location
Oracle Arena
Oakland, CA
The Line
The Line: Golden State -4.5 -- Over/Under 215
TV Channel
ABC
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The Golden State Warriors will be looking to level the series against the Toronto Raptors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals at the Oracle Arena on Friday.

The Toronto Raptors would’ve been so disappointed with themselves after surrendering home-court advantage with the loss in Game 2, but they’ve regained control of the series with a 123-109 road win over the Warriors in Game 3. Kawhi Leonard looked to be in control throughout the game as he led the way with 30 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two blocks, Kyle Lowry drained five 3-pointers on his way to 23 points and nine assists, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green each scored 18 points while Marc Gasol chipped in with 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists. Fred VanVleet has been a key figure off the bench for the Raptors, but he finished with just 11 points in Game 3 and was hardly needed as the Raptors shot a healthy 52 percent from the field and 17 of 38 from the 3-point line as they outlasted the Warriors despite 47 points from Stephen Curry.

Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors said they weren’t going to panic after dropping the first game of the series, but I wonder how they feel now that they’re trailing again in this series. Stephen Curry had a monster night in Game 3, but it still wasn’t enough as he just didn’t get enough support from his teammates. Draymond Green added 17 points with seven rebounds and four assists while Andre Iguodala chipped in with 11 points, but no other player finished in double figures as the Warriors shot just 39 percent from the field and 12 of 36 from the 3-point line. Kevin Durant has been out with a calf sprain and is already listed as out for Game 4, but the good news is that Klay Thompson is expected to return after missing out in Game 3 which is a major boost for the team on both sides of the floor.  

Looking at the betting trends, the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Warriors are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games against a team with a road record above .600, 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.

Head to head, the over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Golden State and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Golden State and the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings overall.

You wouldn’t think the Warriors could lose if Curry goes off like he did in Game 3, but that’s what can happen when you have so many key players injured on the sidelines. Kevin Durant is still out and I’m having doubts whether he will play at all this series, but the big news is that Klay Thompson is expected to be return which is massive for the Warriors. I’m tempted to go with the Raptors who have looked great in their two wins in this series, but the Warriors know what is at stake and they’re a dangerous team with their backs against the wall, especially with the splash brothers back together. I still see this series going to seven games, so I’m taking the Warriors to get the win and cover in this one.  

Pick:
Golden State -4.5
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