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Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets - 1/7/19 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
Date & Time Monday January 7, 2019, 8:00 PM (EST)
Toyota Center
The Line
The Line: Houston -1 -- Over/Under 215
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The Denver Nuggets and the Houston Rockets collide at the Toyota Center for some Monday night basketball.

The Denver Nuggets have been the hottest teams since late November as they’ve won 16 of their last 20 games and they will be gunning for a sixth straight victory after taking down the Hornets in a 123-110 home win on Saturday. Nikola Jokic had a monster game of 39 points with 12 rebounds and six assists of 16 of 29 shooting, Paul Millsap added 18 points while Gary Harris chipped in with 17 points and five assists. As a team, the Nuggets shot 46 percent from the field and 14 of 39 from the 3-point line as they put a lid on Kemba Walker defensively to outscore the Hornets by 65-54 in the second half. With the win, Denver improved to 26-11 overall and an impressive 16-3 at home.

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have been in great form as they’ve won 11 of their last 13 games but they will be looking to bounce back after having their six-game win streak snapped by the Trailblazers in a 110-101 road loss on Saturday. James Harden led the team with 38 points and seven assists, Austin Rivers added 21 points while Clint Capela chipped in with 13 points, 21 rebounds and two blocks. As a team, the Rockets shot 46 percent from the field and 13 of 38 from the 3-point line but they were always fighting an uphill battle after falling behind by 13 points going into halftime. The Rockets needed more from the red-hot Harden who shot just 13 of 35 from the field and five of 17 from beyond the arc. With the loss, Houston dropped to 22-16 overall and 9-11 on the road.

Looking at the betting trends, the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine home games, 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Head to head, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings.

The Nuggets have been in fantastic form lately, especially on the road where they are 16-3 so far, but they’ve been mediocre on the road and have already lost to the Rockets by 109-99 back on Nov 13. It’s tempting to go with the Nuggets who represent decent value as the slight road underdog, but the Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings and I expect that trend to continue as Harden bounces back from his rough shooting night on Saturday to lead the Rockets in a narrow win here.

Houston -1
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