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Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets - 3/28/19 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets
Date & Time Thursday March 28, 2019, 8:00 PM (EDT)
Toyota Center
Houston, TX
The Line
The Line: Houston -5 -- Over/Under 218
TV Channel
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Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets pay a visit to the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center on Thursday night.

The Denver Nuggets have been on a tear lately as they’ve won eight of their last 10 games and they will be looking to stay hot after sneaking past the Pistons in a 95-92 home win on Tuesday. Jamal Murray led the team with 33 points and five assists, Nikola Jokic added 23 points with 15 rebounds while Paul Millsap chipped in with 10 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. As a team, the Nuggets shot 42 percent from the field and seven of 27 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with their defense in the first half where they outscored the Pistons by 66-39, but the second half was a totally different story as the Nuggets really had to fight in the fourth quarter as the Pistons looked primed to pull off the major comeback until Murray came through with six points in the final minute. With the win, Denver improved to 50-23 overall and 31-6 at home which is good for second place in the Western Conference standings.

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have been on fire lately as they’ve won 14 of their last 17 games, but they will be looking to bounce back after falling to the league-leading Bucks in a 108-94 road loss on Tuesday. James Harden led the team with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists, Chris Paul added 19 points with nine rebounds and four assists while Clint Capela chipped in with 17 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks. As a team, the Rockets shot just 36 percent from the field and 16 of 52 from the 3-point line as they took the early lead before the Bucks took control of the game in the second and third quarters where they outscored the Rockets by a combined 70-46 to put the game out of reach early. With the loss, Houston fell to 47-28 on the season and 20-18 on the road.

Looking at the betting trends, the Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team above .600, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a home record above .600. The Rockets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games playing on one days rest and 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.

Head to head, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

Two of the hottest teams in Western Conference collide as the Nuggets will be looking to stay hot against the Rockets who are looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Bucks. The Rockets lead the season series by 2-1 but it was the Nuggets who won the most recent meeting by 136-122 back on Feb 1. All three meetings this season were decided by double-digit margins, so I’m leaning towards the Rockets to earn the win and cover against the Nuggets who have been average on the road all season.


Houston -5
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