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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors - 5/11/15 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Golden State Warriors (72-17) at Memphis Grizzlies (61-29)
Date & Time Monday May 11, 2015, 9:30 PM (EDT)
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The Line
The Line: Memphis Grizzlies +5 -- Over/Under: 196
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The Golden State Warriors look to level the series tonight against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Warriors received a nice wake up call in their loss in Game 2 but that wake up call is sounding more like an alarm now as the Warriors will be looking at a 3-1 series deficit if they lose tonight. Stephen Curry scored 23 points, Klay Thompson added 20 points while Harrison Barnes added 16 points but once again the Warriors got off to a slow start and found themselves down by 55-39 at halftime, leaving them too much room to make up against one of the best defensive teams in the league. The Warriors need to find a way to speed the game up because Games 2 and 3 were completely played on the Grizzlies' terms and at their pace and Draymond Green needs to bounce back from a tough performance of just six points on 1 of 8 shooting.

As for the Grizzlies, they don't need to change a thing as they've dominated the Warriors in the last two games. In Game 2 it was the Grizzlies' backcourt that led the scoring but this time it was Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol who led the team in scoring with 22 and 21 points respectively. Defensively, the Grizzlies did a fantastic job of holding the Warriors to just 43.2 percent shooting and just 6 of 26 from the three-point line. Tony Allen was once again a major factor on the perimeter and his play really lifts the team and keeps the Warriors off balance.

In ATS trends, the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall, while the Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Head to head, the Warriors are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall and the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Memphis.

Curry and the Warriors will surely bounce back from a second straight loss but I just can't justify taking them to cover the spread after what I've seen in the last two games. Maybe the Warriors flip the script and come out on top, but I'm definitely take the Grizzlies with the points at home.

Memphis Grizzlies +5
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