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Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks - 3/28/19 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Date & Time Thursday March 28, 2019, 7:30 PM (EDT)
American Airlines Arena
Miami, Florida
The Line
The Line: Miami Heat -7.5 -- Over/Under: 208.5
TV Channel
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Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat meet Thursday in NBA action at the American Airlines Arena.

The Dallas Mavericks look to play spoiler after losing 11 of their last 13 games. The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 108.6 points on 44.8 percent shooting and allowing 110.1 points on 46.1 percent shooting. Luka Doncic is averaging 21.1 points and 5.9 assists while Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 15.5 points and 3.2 rebounds. Dorian Finney-Smith is grabbing 4.7 rebounds and Trey Burke is dishing 1.9 assists. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 34.2 percent from beyond the arc and 74.4 percent from the free throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 34.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.8 rebounds per game. The Dallas Mavericks have lost 10 of their last 12 road games.

The Miami Heat need a victory here after winning 10 of their last 15 games. The Miami Heat are averaging 105.7 points on 45.1 percent shooting and allowing 105.9 points on 44.4 percent shooting. Josh Richardson is averaging 16.7 points and 4.1 assists while Dwyane Wade is averaging 14.4 points and 4.1 assists. Goran Dragic is the third double-digit scorer and Hassan Whiteside is grabbing 11.5 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 35.4 percent from beyond the arc and 69.2 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 36 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.1 rebounds per game. The Miami Heat have split their last six home games.

The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest and 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 vs. Eastern Conference. The Heat are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Southwest, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. The Mavericks are 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Miami and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games. The over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

The Miami Heat are winning, but they're somehow still being outscored by an average of three points in their last five games. The Heat are also losing by an average of 0.2 points at home this season. In other words, while the Heat are the better team than the Cavs and need this game to stay in the thick of the playoff race, they're always in tight games, lack consistent offense, can't put 48 minutes of basketball together and have a knack for losing games they shouldn't. We saw it Tuesday night when the Heat had a 17-point lead against the Orlando Magic and completely fell apart in the second half. It's a trend with this team. There's better options on Thursday's card, but if forced to pick, I want the free buckets with the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas Mavericks +7.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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