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Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons - 2/23/19 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Date & Time Saturday February 23, 2019, 7:30 PM (EST)
American Airlines Arena
Miami, FL
The Line
The Line: Miami -3.5 -- Over/Under 205.5
TV Channel
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Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat play host to the Detroit Pistons at the American Airlines Arena on Saturday night.

The Detroit Pistons have been in great shape as they’ve won five of their last six games and they will be looking to stay hot after last night’s 125-122 road win over the Hawks. Reggie Jackson guided the offense with 32 points, eight assists and zero turnovers, Andre Drummond racked up 26 points with 21 rebounds and five steals while Blake Griffin chipped in with 15 points before getting ejected in the third quarter after receiving his second technical. As a team, the Pistons shot 48 percent from the field and 15 of 40 from the 3-point line as they started to pull away in the third quarter when Griffin drained a 3-pointer to lead by 11 points, before having to regroup after the ejection. With the scores tied, the ball swung around to the newly-acquired Thon Maker who drained the open corner 3-pointer to give the Pistons the lead with 16.7 seconds left on the clock. With the hard fought win, Detroit improved to 27-30 overall and 10-17 on the road.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat just haven’t been able to build any sort of momentum as they’ve lost seven of their last nine games and they will be looking to bounce back after falling just short in a 106-102 road loss to the 76ers on Thursday. Dwyane Wade led the team in scoring with 19 points and six assists off the bench, Dion Waiters added 18 points while Kelly Olynyk chipped in with 15 points. As a team, the Heat shot just 47 percent from the field and six of 23 from the 3-point line, but their defense kept them in the game, especially in the third quarter where they held the 76ers to just 16 points to take the lead, but the 76ers responded in the fourth quarter and pulled away. With the narrow loss, Miami fell to 26-31 overall and 15-15 on the road.

Looking at the betting trends, the Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games following a road trip of seven or more days and 4-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games.

Head to head, the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, the Pistons are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings overall and 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami. 

The Pistons showed a lot of fight to pull out a narrow win against the Hawks after losing Griffin in the third quarter, especially Jackson and Drummond who picked up the slack. The Heat have been competitive in just about every game but they just can’t get over the line as three of their last four losses have been by six points or less. The Pistons are just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings, but I think Griffin will have a big game following his ejection last night, so I like their chances against the Heat who are just 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

Detroit +3.5
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