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Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics - 5/6/19 NBA Game 4 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Date & Time Monday May 6, 2019, 7:00 PM (EDT)
Location
TD Garden
Boston, Massachusetts
The Line
The Line: Boston Celtics -1.5 -- Over/Under: 221
TV Channel
TNT
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The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics meet Monday in game four of the second round NBA playoffs at the TD Garden.

The Milwaukee Bucks look for a third straight victory to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 117.6 points on 47.6 percent shooting and allowing 103.1 points on 41.5 percent shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 26.9 points and 11.1 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 20 points and 6.1 rebounds. Eric Bledsoe is the third double-digit scorer and George Hill is dishing three assists. The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc and 73.4 percent from the free throw line. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 35.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 50.6 rebounds per game. The Milwaukee Bucks have won seven of their last nine road games.

The Boston Celtics need a win here to even up the series and have any real shot of advancing. The Boston Celtics are averaging 103.9 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 100.4 points on 41.4 percent shooting. Kyrie Irving is averaging 22 points and 7.4 assists while Jayson Tatum is averaging 15.1 points and 6.3 rebounds. Jaylen Brown is the third double-digit scorer and Al Horford is grabbing 9.7 rebounds. The Boston Celtics are shooting 39.6 percent from beyond the arc and 81.2 percent from the free throw line. The Boston Celtics are allowing 36.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.3 rebounds per game. The Boston Celtics have won eight of their last 14 home games.

The Bucks are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days rest, 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games and 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games overall. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Conference Semifinals games, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Boston and 5-11 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. The over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 overall.

The Milwaukee Bucks have covered each of their last seven games as a road underdog, and six of those covers were outright victories. The Boston Celtics have failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games as a home favorite, and they've lost seven of those games outright. 

The trends once again favor the Milwaukee Bucks, but I'm going to ignore them and back the Celtics in what will be a must-win game. The Celtics are better defensively than what they've shown these last two games and Kyrie is due for a breakout game after really struggling from the field these first three contests. There's also word that Marcus Smart will be making his return in this game, which is huge given all of the little things he brings to the table, including passion and a will to win. It may not be pretty, but the Celtics will find a way to even up this series. 

Pick:
Boston Celtics -1.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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