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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets - 5/9/19 NBA - Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
Date & Time Thursday May 9, 2019, 10:30 PM (EDT)
Location
Moda Center
Portland, Oregon
The Line
The Line: Portland Trail Blazers -4 -- Over/Under: 215.5
TV Channel
ESPN
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Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers meet Thursday in game six of the second round of the NBA playoffs at the Moda Center.

The Denver Nuggets look for their first conference final appearance since the 2008-09 season. The Denver Nuggets are averaging 110.3 points on 45.3 percent shooting and allowing 106.9 points on 45.1 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 24.5 points and 13.1 rebounds while Jamal Murray is averaging 21.4 points and 4.7 assists. Paul Millsap is the third double-digit scorer and Gary Harris is grabbing 4.1 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 35.5 percent from beyond the arc and 77.3 percent from the free throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 33.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.8 rebounds per game. The Denver Nuggets have lost three of their last five road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers need a victory here in order to force a game seven on Sunday. The Portland Trail Blazers are averaging 111.5 points on 44.1 percent shooting and allowing 111.4 points on 44.2 percent shooting. Damian Lillard is averaging 29.6 points and 5.9 assists while CJ McCollum is averaging 24 points and 5.4 rebounds. Enes Kanter is the third double-digit scorer and Al-Farouq Aminu is grabbing 7.6 rebounds. The Portland Trail Blazers are shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc and 76.1 percent from the free throw line. The Portland Trail Blazers are allowing 34 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.2 rebounds per game. The Portland Trail Blazers have won four of their last five home games.

The Nuggets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Conference Semifinals games, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Trail Blazers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Portland and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The over is 19-7-1 in Trail Blazers last 27 home games. The over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 overall.

The Portland Trail Blazers are having serious issues with the size of the Denver Nuggets and have been on the wrong side of some brutal failed covers in these playoffs. The Trail Blazers should win this game, but I'm not comfortable laying more than a bucket. Instead, I'll follow up my game five pick and side with the over once again. We hit on the over in game five despite Portland bringing very little to the table offensively. The over has dominated in games at the Moda Center and it's also hit in four of the five games this series. Take away the four-overtime game, and this series through four games is still averaging 217.75 points per contest. The Trail Blazers will shoot better at home and the Nuggets have been comfortable all series. The over feels like an easier bet than playing with the spread. 

Pick:
Over 215.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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