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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors - 12/29/18 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Golden State Warriors (23-13) at Portland Trail Blazers (20-15)
Date & Time Saturday December 29, 2018, 10:00 PM (EST)
The Line
The Line: Portland Trail Blazers +3.5 -- Over/Under: 226.5
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Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Portland Trailblazers play host to the Golden State Warriors at the Moda Center on Saturday night.

The Golden State Warriors have been in a bit of a funk lately as they’ve lost three of their last five games and they will be hoping to avoid a third straight defeat after falling to the Trailblazers in a 110-109 overtime loss on Thursday. Stephen Curry led the team with 29 pointss and seven assists, Kevin Durant added a triple-double of 26 points with 10 rebounds and 11 assists while Klay Thompson and Draymond Green each scored 15 points. As a team, the Warriors shot just 42 percent from the field and 13 of 44 from the 3-point line but when it really mattered most, it was the Trailblazers’ Damian Lillard who drained the clutch three to steal the game from the Warriors. With the loss, Golden State dropped to 23-13 on the season and 15-5 at home.  

Meanwhile, the Portland Trailblazers have been in great form as they’ve won five of their last seven games and they will be feeling full of confidence after escaping Golden State with the road win in overtime. Jusuf Nurkic led the team in scoring with 27 points, 12 rebounds and four assists, CJ McCollum added 24 points but with the game on the line, it was Damian Lillard who drained the game-winning three to finish with 21 points and five assists. As a team, the Trailblazers shot just 36 percent from the field and 13 of 40 from the 3-point line. With the win, Portland improved to 20-15 on the season and 7-10 on the road.

Looking at the betting trends, the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. The Trailblazers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 home games, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against a team above .600 and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall.

Head to head, the over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Portland and the Warriors are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Trailblazers have been on a nice run over their last seven games and their confidence must be sky high after taking down the defending champs on the road on Thursday to level the season series at 1-1. The Warriors are far and away the more talented team in this matchup but they haven’t looked like themselves lately and it’s starting to cost them games. The Warriors could easily snap out of it and win this one by double digits, but the Trailblazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I think that trend continues as they pull off the upset.

Pick:
Portland +3.5

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