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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors - 5/18/19 NBA - Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
Date & Time Saturday May 18, 2019, 9:00 PM (EDT)
Location
Moda Center
Portland, OR
The Line
The Line: Portland -2.5 -- Over/Under 221
TV Channel
ESPN
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Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trailblazers collide in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals at the Moda Center on Saturday.

The Golden State Warriors will be full of confidence after rallying back from a 17-point deficit to beat the Trailblazers by 114-111 in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead. With Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins both still injured, Stephen Curry stepped up to lead the team with 37 points and eight assists on 11 of 22 shooting, Klay Thompson added 24 points while Draymond Green racked up 16 points with 10 rebounds, seven assists and five blocks. As a team, the Warriors shot 51 percent from the field and just nine of 29 from the 3-point line, as they struggled in the first half, before squaring up the scores with 39 points in the third quarter. On the defensive end, the Warriors were at their best in the fourth quarter where they allowed just 22 points after allowing 65 points in a horror first half. 

Meanwhile, the Portland Trailblazers will be feeling like they really blew their chance to steal a game after leading by as many as 17 points in the third quarter. Damian Lillard had his moments early on, but went cold when the team needed him most as he finished with 23 points and 10 assists, CJ McCollum added 22 points and five assists while Seth Curry chipped in with 16 points in a key role off the bench. As a team, the Trailblazers shot just 44 percent from the field and 18 of 39 from the three-point line as they dominated the first half, before falling painfully short as the Warriors escaped with the narrow win in a game that could've easily gone either way. 

Looking at the betting trends, the Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Saturday games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a win and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Conference Finals games. The Trailblazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss, 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a road record above .600 and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Saturday games. 

Head to head, the over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Portland and the over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings overall.

You can't help but feel that Game 2 was the Trailblazers best chance to steal a game and gain control of the series, but now they're facing the possibility of a 3-0 deficit if they can't protect home court. The Warriors played with a point to prove in Game 1 and parlayed that effort with a thrilling comeback win in Game 2, so they're sitting pretty with Kevin Durant likely to return in Game 5. This one could go either way, so while I'm tempted to take the Warriors as the underdog, I'm going to have to stick with the Trailblazers who are playing for their season in this game. The Trailblazers were close as they could be in Game 2 and in front of a packed house, I think they get their first win of the series here.

Pick:
Portland -2.5
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