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San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets - 4/18/19 NBA - Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Game
Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs
Date & Time Thursday April 18, 2019, 9:00 PM (EDT)
Location
AT&T Center
San Antonio, TX
The Line
The Line: San Antonio -3.5 -- Over/Under 210.5
TV Channel
NBATV
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Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The San Antonio Spurs play host to the Denver Nuggets at the AT&T Center in Game 3 on Thursday night.

The Denver Nuggets needed a big performance from someone if they were going to bounce their poor showing in Game 1 and they found their hero in Jamal Murray who led the Nuggets to a much-needed 114-105 home win in Game 2 to level the series. Murray led the team with 24 points and four assists, Gary Harris added 23 points on 10 of 16 shooting, Nikola Jokic racked up 21 points with 13 rebounds and eight assists while Paul Millsap chipped in with 20 points. As a team, the Nuggets shot 48 percent from the field and 10 of 24 from the 3-point line as they looked to be dead in the water when they fell behind by 19 points, before Murray led the comeback charge with 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter where the Nuggets outscored the Spurs by 39-23 to come away with the unlikely win.

Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs missed out on a great opportunity to take a commanding 2-0 series lead going back home, as they looked to be in full control of the game until the fourth quarter. DeMar DeRozan led the team with 31 points on 11 of 19 shooting, LaMarcus Aldridge added 24 points on eight of 20 shooting while Derrick White chipped in with 17 points, but no other player scored more than eight points. As a team, the Spurs shot 45 percent from the field and five of 18 from the 3-point line as they twice led by as many as 19 points, but frustratingly, they couldn’t stop the Nuggets who closed the game on a blistering 55-27 run.   

Looking at the betting trends, the Nuggets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win, 1-8 ATS in their last nine Conference Quarterfinals games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a home record above .600. The Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record, 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Head to head, the road team is 29-14 ATS in the last 43 meetings, the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and the Nuggets are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.

The Nuggets will be feeling relieved that they were able to square the series, especially Murray who was in a bit of a shooting slump before Game 2. The Spurs will be kicking themselves as they feel they should be halfway to the second round already, but that probably shouldn’t faze a team as experienced as the Spurs. I’m expecting another close contest, but the Nuggets have all the momentum right now, they are only 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in San Antonio and I think that trend continues as the Spurs get the narrow win and cover here.

Pick:
San Antonio -3.5
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