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Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears 10/12/14 Free NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)
Date & Time Sunday October 12, 2014, 4:25 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Atlanta Falcons -3 -- Over/Under: 53
TV Channel
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NFL | Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

The Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears face off on Sunday at the Georgia Dome for a NFC NFL Week 6 matchup.

The Atlanta Falcons missed the playoffs last season and thus far this season haven’t lost at home but they haven’t won on the road. The Falcons offense seems to be one of the best in the NFL but unfortunately their defense is one of the worst. Matt Ryan has completed 66 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Steven Jackson is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry but overall he looks revitalized. Julio Jones has been outstanding an he is the Falcons leading receiver with 40 catches while Roddy White has been dinged up and Devin Hester appears to have found a home in the slot. The Falcons have a minus two turnover ratio and Paul Worrilow leads Atlanta with 58 tackles, Prince Shembo has 31 tackles, and Kroy Bierman has 27 tackles. The Falcons just haven’t had much of a pass rush as they have just four sacks thus far this season.

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The Chicago Bears are 2-3 on the season and have lost their last two games. The Bears offense ranks in the middle of the pack while the defense is in the lower third which hasn’t given them a lot of success. Jay Cutler has 12 touchdown passes and just six interceptions and he has been sacked 12 times. Matt Forte isn’t having his best season averaging just 3.8 yards per carry but he has 36 receptions that leads the Bears. Martellus Bennett has 32 catches and four touchdowns, Alshon Jeffery as 26 catches, and Brandon Marshall has 19 catches with five of them going for touchdowns. The Bears are plus one in turnover ratio but this just isn’t the same team we have seen in the past when it comes to defense. Ryan Mundy and Jon Bostic each have 28 tackles and Willie Young has 5.0 sacks. The Bears need to improve defense and the running game but they are far from out of it in the NFC North.

Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. Chicago is 7-20 against the spread against the NFC, 1-7 against the spread against a team with a losing record, and 2-5 against the spread following a loss. The home team has won the last four meetings of these two.

This one looks close but the difference is the Falcons are simply very tough at home and the Bears don’t have a defense that can get it done in Atlanta so my pick is the Falcons. 

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Atlanta Falcons -3

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