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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans - 9/30/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Date & Time Sunday September 30, 2018, 1:00 PM (EDT)
The Line
The Line: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 -- Over/Under: 47
TV Channel
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NFL | Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in NFL action at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Houston Texans take to the road for the third time this season and hope to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008. The Houston Texans have lost nine straight road games. Deshaun Watson is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 871 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. Watson has two or more touchdown passes in seven of his last eight games. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V have combined for 488 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Bruce Ellington has eight receptions. The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 124.7 yards per contest, and Lamar Miller leads the way with 176 yards on 44 carries. Defensively, Houston is allowing 24.7 points and 350.3 yards per game. Kareem Jackson leads the Houston Texans with 23 tackles, J.J. Watt has three sacks and Tyrann Mathieu has one interception. 

The Indianapolis Colts look for their first home win of the season to get back to a .500 record. The Indianapolis Colts have lost five of their last six home games. Andrew Luck is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 662 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. Luck has 133 pass attempts since the start of the 2016 calendar year. T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant have combined for 303 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Eric Ebron has 12 receptions. The Indianapolis Colts ground game is averaging 82.3 yards per contest, and Jordan Wilkins leads the way with 120 yards on 30 carries. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 21 points and 347.7 yards per game. Darius Leonard leads the Indianapolis Colts with 41 tackles, Margus Hunt has three sacks and Anthony Walker has one interception.

The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Texans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Indianapolis, 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings and underdog is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Houston Texans started the season as a dark horse Super Bowl contender, but let's just say things haven't exactly panned out as expected. However, the good news is the Texans lost the three games by a combined 15 points and Watson has improved his play each week. The Indianapolis Colts are off to a shaky start as well, and Luck still looks rusty. Only the Arizona Cardinals are averaging fewer yards per pass attempt this season. The Colts have won 10 of the last 15 games against the Texans and have won 10 of the last 12 meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium. So while the Colts should probably be the favorite here, I still feel the Texans are the better football team from a talent standpoint. The Texans defense still does a good job of getting after the quarterback and it's only a matter of time before Houston starts scoring points as Watson gets more and more comfortable. I'm seeing free points with the better team, so I'm going to take the Texans in this contest. 

Houston Texans +2.5

Randy Chambers has been with Sports Chat Place since 2014 and covers everything from the NFL to WNBA and tennis. Nobody works harder in this business in terms of content produced and amount of sports covered. Formerly a lead college football writer with Bleacher Report and has had his work featured at Fox Sports, CBS Sports and various other outlets.

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