Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 01/12/2019 NFL - AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 12, 2019 at 4:35 PM (Arrowhead Stadium)
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -5 -- Over/Under: 56
The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs meet Saturday in the NFL AFC Divisional playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a playoff victory over the Houston Texans and have a chance to make their third AFC Championship since the 2009 season. The Indianapolis Colts have won four of their last five road games. Andrew Luck is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,815 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Luck has three or more touchdown passes in nine of his last 14 games. T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron have combined for 2,131 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns while Chester Rogers has 57 receptions. The Indianapolis Colts ground game is averaging 107.4 yards per contest, and Marlon Mack leads the way with 1,056 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 21.5 points and 339.4 yards per game. Darius Leonard leads the Indianapolis Colts with 176 tackles, Denico Autry has nine sacks and Kenny Moore II has four interceptions.
The Kansas City Chiefs enter the playoffs splitting their last six games and can make their first conference championship since the 1993 season. The Kansas City Chiefs have won seven of their last eight home games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 66 percent of his passes for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Mahomes has three or more touchdown passes in 10 of the 16 games this season. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have combined for 2,815 receiving yards and 22 touchdowns while Sammy Watkins has 40 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 115.9 yards per contest, and Mahomes leads the way with 272 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 26.3 points and 405.5 yards per game. Anthony Hitchens leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 135 tackles, Chris Jones has 15.5 sacks and Steven Nelson has four interceptions.
The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Kansas City and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings. The over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games overall. The under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games overall.
The Indianapolis Colts are now riding a five-game winning streak and are outscoring teams by an average of 11.4 points during that streak. The Kansas City Chiefs have experienced three of their four losses in their last six games, but five of their last eight wins have come by double digits and they're winning by an average of 11.5 points in their last four home games. The Indianapolis Colts have covered seven of their last 11 games when an underdog of at least three points. The Kansas City Chiefs have failed to cover five of their last seven games when a favorite of at least three points. The Kansas City Chiefs are scary when that offense gets going and with an extra week to prepare, you know Andy Reid has some tricks up his sleeve to get the most out of the offensive side of the ball. The problem is the Chiefs haven't been as consistent the last few weeks as they were earlier in the year and have actually lost the last two games they've played a team with a winning record. The Indianapolis Colts looked sharp in their win over the Texans and now have a defense that's allowed 17 or less points in five of their last eight games. Luck is also capable of doing his fair share of damage, and the Cincinnati Bengals are the only defense that's allowed more passing yards this season than the Chiefs. We also can't ignore the history of playoff chokes with the Chiefs, as they have some questionable losses, which includes a loss last year to the Tennessee Titans and blowing a 31-10 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2013 wild card game. I'm sure the last team Kansas City and its fans wanted to see was a red hot and confident Colts squad. I'm siding with the points.